What Polls and Betting Markets Say Four Months Out from Midterms
Since the 1982 midterms, 2002 was the only midterm election after which the sitting president’s party emerged with control of the House. The 2026 midterms likely won’t be an exception, as Republicans currently trail in the Generic Congressional Ballot and are only slightly ahead in the Senate.
The latest RCP Average for the Generic Congressional Ballot has Democrats up 6 points. This is an 8.7-point swing from 2024, when Republicans won the GCB by 2.7 points. Despite congressional map redraws giving Republicans around 8-12 congressional seats, Polymarket has Republicans’ chance of keeping the House at just 14%.
The Senate side is much closer, as Democrats need to win all the seats in swing states and flip seats in Republican-leaning states, such as Iowa, Alaska, Texas, and Ohio. Still, Republicans have only a 54% chance to keep control of the Senate, according to betting markets.
Here is where the key 2026 Senate contests stand.
The most interesting race of the cycle is Maine’s Senate seat, where before Monday, progressive Graham Platner was set to challenge Republican incumbent Susan Collins, who has held the seat since 1997.
Polls had the race as a dead heat, with Fox News this week having Collins ahead by 3 points, while a New York Times/Siena poll released last week had Platner up 2. Despite not supporting a Republican statewide for the presidential election since 1988, Collins had a 52% chance to win.
However, after Politico reported that Jenny Racicot, who said she had previously had an “on-and-off relationship” with Platner, alleged that he drunkenly sexually assaulted her five years ago, his odds of dropping out of the race exploded to 90% in betting markets. Platner said in a video Monday that the allegations of nonconsensual behavior were “categorically false,” but that he was “taking the time to reflect on the best path forward” for his campaign because of the effect the reporting will have on it.
If he drops out before the July 13 deadline, the Maine Democratic Party will be able to select a replacement nominee to face Susan Collins in November. After the Politico story was published, betting markets rebounded and gave whoever the Democratic candidate ends up being a 64% chance of unseating Collins.
The two Southern swing states with Senate seats in play this cycle both have Democrats leading by significant margins.
In Georgia, incumbent Jon Ossoff leads Republican Rep. Mike Collins by 13 points in the latest Fox News poll. A recent New York Times/Siena poll had former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper 7 points ahead of former RNC Chairman Michael Whatley in the North Carolina Race.
Both Republicans have long odds of winning their races, at just 14% each, according to Polymarket’s betting markets.
Despite a Democratic wave coming in 2024, New Hampshire’s Senate seat is in play. In the latest University of New Hampshire and Saint Anselm polls, Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas leads former New Hampshire Sen. John Sununu by 3 and 6 points, respectively. Despite being in a Democratic-leaning state, Sununu has a similar chance to Collins and Whatley, at 16%.
The Democratic candidate for Michigan’s Senate seat is still up in the air. In the latest Quantus Insights poll, progressive Democrat Abdul El-Sayed led Democratic Rep. Haley Stevens by 5 points in the primary. Other polls of the Aug. 4 primary have also shown El-Sayed ahead, with the RCP Average giving him a 5.3-point lead.
The Quantus poll found that whether El-Sayed or Stevens wins, the general election against Republican Mike Rogers will be close. Both led Rogers by 1 point in the poll, similar to findings from other recent polls. Polymarket currently gives Abdul El-Sayed an 82% chance to win the primary, and the Democratic nominee a 73% chance to win the general election.
Even if Democrats win all the aforementioned states, they still need to pick up two seats in red-leaning states. Two of these are Alaska and Ohio, where despite leaning red in recent elections, the Democratic candidates have recent histories of winning the state.
Ohio’s former senator, Sherrod Brown, who lost reelection in 2024, is trying to unseat Republican John Husted, who was appointed to replace JD Vance after he became vice president. The latest New York Times/Siena poll of the race has Husted leading by 3 points, though a recent Fabrizio, Anzalone poll also had Brown up 3.
In Alaska, incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan led in the New York Times/Siena poll by 2 points against Democrat Mary Peltola, who won the 2022 Alaska House race, a statewide race since Alaska only has one House seat.
Betting markets think both races will be close, with Sherrod Brown at 50% to win in Ohio and Mary Peltola at 60% to win in Alaska.
The last two critical states are Texas and Iowa, where Republicans lead but only very slightly.
Texas’ Senate race has Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton squaring off against Democratic state Rep. James Talarico. Of the polls taken in June, two had the race tied, and two had Paxton up by 1 or 2 points, indicating the race is very close. Iowa’s race between Democratic state Rep. Joshua Turek and Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson is similarly close, with the race tied in the latest RCP Average.
These are the only races where Republicans hold a slight advantage, currently leading in betting markets with 56% each.
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