What Issues Matter Most in the Midterms

Ever since inflation surged in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic and the massive fiscal and monetary stimulus that accompanied it, it has ranked as voters' top concern, by a wide margin. The problem for Republicans heading into the midterms is that voters don't think the Trump administration has done enough to fix it.

In the latest Economist/YouGov poll, 31% rank inflation as the top issue, followed by jobs and the economy at 15%, and health care at 9%. In the last Economist/YouGov poll before the 2024 election, 24% rated inflation as their top issue, followed by immigration at 13%, and jobs and the economy at 11%. Immigration has fallen to the fifth most important issue in the latest poll, with only 5% rating it the most important issue.

The problem for Republicans is that while more voters trusted them on the top three issues in 2024, they no longer do. When asked which party would better handle the economy in a Sept. 11-14 Economist/YouGov poll, 41% said the Democratic Party, while only 37% said the Republican Party, and 13% said both would do about the same. A separate New York Times/Siena poll found that likely midterm voters trusted the Democratic Party more on the cost of living, 51%-43%, and health care, 60%-36%.

Trump also faces disastrous approval on these issues. In the Sept. 11-14 Economist/YouGov poll, only 29% approved of how he's handled inflation, while 66% disapproved. In the RealClearPolitics Polling Average for Trump's approval on inflation, approval is even worse, at just 27.5%, and net approval for the issue stands at -41.5. Even on immigration, one of Trump's strongest issues, his net approval in the RCP Average is negative, at -10.9.

When Trump entered office in January 2025, inflation, measured by the consumer price index, was up 3% over the year prior. By January 2026, it had fallen to 2.4%, still above the Federal Reserve's long-term target of 2%, but close. However, following the onset of the Iran war, inflation spiked to 4.2% at its peak in May, and stood at 3.4% in the most recent reading for August.

Since Democrats now lead on the top issues, they are leading by 8.3 points in the RCP Average for the Generic Congressional Ballot.

Another benefit Democrats have in the midterms is being able to galvanize voters on issues that might not be the top priority but are still of concern. On immigration, for example, 53% said in a recent Fox News poll that the Trump administration has "gone too far" in enforcing immigration laws. This largely stems from Democrats and independents, 87% and 60% of whom, respectively, say the enforcement has gone too far.

Frustration with the Trump administration on these issues has given Democrats a clear enthusiasm edge, while Republicans, as the party in power, lack a clear target to mobilize against. In the latest Economist/YouGov poll, 37% said they were more enthusiastic to vote in this year's midterms than in previous elections. Democrats, however, were much more likely than Republicans to say they were more enthusiastic, 46%-36%. Independents showed very little change, with 28% saying they were more enthusiastic, while 29% said they were less enthusiastic.

This difference in enthusiasm matters even more in midterm elections, where turnout is lower than in presidential elections, and winning is more about who you can get out to vote than what the general populace believes about the different parties.