Voters Now Rate Trump Economy Worse Than Biden’s

The chief concerns of Americans going into the 2024 election were inflation and the economy, and polls at the time showed that voters trusted Donald Trump more on those issues than they did Kamala Harris. That confidence has since eroded, as Americans are now telling pollsters the economy under Trump has disappointed and is worse today than under Joe Biden.

The poll that goes deepest on these economic concerns comes from Harvard-Harris, taken April 23-26 among 2,745 registered voters. It found that 52% believe the economy is worse today than when Biden was president, including 65% of independent voters.

However, data from the time suggest that perceptions of the economy were worse under Biden than they are today. At the peak of inflation in the summer of 2022, around 70% of Americans said the U.S. economy was weak, and that figure hovered near 60% for much of the remainder of his term. In contrast, the latest Harvard-Harris poll finds that only 52% now say the economy is weak. Presidential economic approval ratings tell a similar story: By the end of Biden’s term, after rebounding significantly from their 2022 trough in public approval, 37% approved of his handling of the economy, compared to 39% for Trump today, while approval on inflation stood at 34% for Biden versus 37% for Trump.

The current decline in economic approval coincides with renewed inflation pressures following the onset of the Iran war. In March, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, inflation rose 0.9% month over month, the highest single-month increase since June 2022. Since the period of elevated inflation has been relatively short so far, it has not reached the June 2022 peak of 9%, instead sitting at 3.3% year over year in March.

Other economic markers are slightly worse in Trump’s economy, compared to Biden’s. Unemployment has steadily ticked up, reaching an elevated but still healthy 4.3% in March, up from a low of 3.4% in late 2022.

Another troubling issue for Trump’s economy is the affordability of homes. In the latest April Gallup poll, a record low number said they believe they will be able to buy a home in the foreseeable future. Only 5% said they would be able to within the next year, and 25% said they would be able to within the next five years. In 2017, 10% said they expected to buy within a year, and 39% within five years. This is especially notable given that a plurality of Americans, 37%, view real estate as the best long-term investment.

The housing market during Biden’s term was similarly weak, with only 21% saying it was a good time to buy a house in 2023 and 2024. The decline in housing affordability is largely a post-COVID phenomenon. In all years polled before the pandemic, including 2007-2009 during the Great Recession, 50% or more said it was a good time to buy a home. In the post-COVID period, the peak is just 29% who said the same.

The availability of housing and constricted job markets affects younger generations the most, as they face a job market where entry-level positions are among the most threatened by AI. In an April Economist poll, only 12% said they expect children today to be better off financially than their parents. Far more, 49%, said they believe their children will be worse off financially.

Even though economic conditions today are comparable to the end of Biden’s term and far better than the inflation spike in the summer of 2022, Trump’s handling of the economy has not translated into a sense of relief. Inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, so prices that rose sharply under Biden continue to rise. That persistent pressure, combined with the continued inaccessibility of major purchases like homeownership, is driving dissatisfaction and will hurt Republicans in the midterms and 2028 without a major turnaround.