Two Weeks Left: What the Final Senate Polls Are Saying

Two weeks out, the Senate map is tighter than the topline suggests. Democrats lead the RCP Average in seven of the eight toss-up states, but a dead heat in Iowa, a pair of polls giving Republicans the lead in Ohio, and tight betting markets are keeping the GOP in contention.

If the polls are right, the closest race is in Iowa, where polls are extremely tight. Democrat Josh Turek leads Republican Ashley Hinson by only 0.3 points in the RealClearPolitics Polling Average, effectively a tie, especially given that six polls in the average have Hinson in the lead and five have Turek in the lead. The latest Trafalgar Group poll put Hinson up 2 points, while the previous Marist poll put Turek up 3 points.

This is a significant shift from President Donald Trump’s 13.2-point win in the state in 2024. Yet despite Turek’s slight lead in the RCP Average, Hinson leads slightly in betting markets, with a 59% chance to win. Such a small edge indicates that betting markets agree with polls that the race is very close.

In South Carolina, another Trafalgar poll had Darline Graham Nordone, Lindsey Graham’s sister and his replacement in the Senate after his death in July, up just 3 points over her opponent, Democrat Dr. Annie Andrews. This isn’t far off other polls in the race, which have Graham Nordone up 2.7 points in the RCP Average.

Betting markets are skeptical of this shallow lead, however, giving Graham Nordone an 84% chance to win, a greater advantage than a 2.7-point polling lead would suggest. In Texas, James Talarico has a similar 2.2-point lead in the RCP Average, yet Polymarket gives him only a 62% chance to win.

Another set of recent polls comes out of Michigan, where Democrat Abdul El-Sayed retains a narrow yet consistent lead. In the latest two polls from Rasmussen and InsiderAdvantage, El-Sayed led Republican Mike Rogers by 2 points, similar to his 2.6-point RCP Average lead. No polls in the current RCP Average have Rogers leading, however. With odds closer to Talarico’s than Graham Nordone’s, El-Sayed has a 68% chance of winning, according to Polymarket.

Rasmussen and co/efficient also had two recent polls in Ohio that found results contrary to the rest of the RCP Average. Both had Republican Jon Husted up by 1 point in co/efficient’s poll and 2 points in Rasmussen’s, while every other poll in the average has Democrat Sherrod Brown up, with Brown leading by 2.8 points in the RCP Average. The polls haven’t moved Polymarket, though, which still gives Brown a 64% chance of winning.

InsiderAdvantage had a slate of polls in other states RCP has rated as toss-ups. In Maine, Democrat Troy Jackson narrowly leads incumbent Republican Susan Collins by 2 points; in Kansas, incumbent Republican Roger Marshall leads Democrat Adam Hamilton by 1 point; and in Alaska, InsiderAdvantage had Democrat Mary Peltola up 2 points.

The only other toss-up state is Minnesota, where the latest Trafalgar poll had Democrat Peggy Flanagan up 3 points over Republican Michele Tafoya, similar to her 2.8-point lead in the RCP Average. As with Graham Nordone, despite not having an overwhelming polling lead, Flanagan has an 87% chance to win.

Overall, little is changing in the final weeks before the midterms. The latest polls have results very similar to other polls taken over the last month, indicating most voters have made their decisions.

The only significant change to watch over the next few weeks is where the 4%-9% of voters who remain undecided in the current Senate races end up going. If these voters break one way or the other in the final weeks, one of the parties could gain a slight advantage heading into Election Day. If they don’t break in one specific direction, however, Democrats’ odds of taking the Senate will likely remain similar to where they are now through Election Day, at a 65% chance, according to betting markets.