Trump’s Unpopularity Sharpens GOP’s Midterm Worries

Donald Trump will go barnstorming across the country this week to make the case for his party in the five weeks before Election Day. He’s banking on favorable reports from several sectors to bolster his argument.

That argument could be more difficult as the RCP Average for the president’s disapproval rating nears 60%.

“We have the best employment numbers in the history of our country,” Trump told reporters at the White House on Sunday. “In other words, there’s less poverty now than at any time today in our country because we have the best income numbers per individual in the history of our country. People making more money than they’ve ever made before.”

The president was referring to U.S. Census Bureau data released earlier in September showing that the official U.S. poverty rate has dropped to 10.2%, a record low. That percentage represents 34.5 million people, and it is down half a percent compared to 2025. Median household income, meanwhile, hit a record high, around 2.5% above a previous record in 2019. The report shows that Social Security remains the government’s largest antipoverty program. However, the percentage of senior Americans in poverty jumped to 45%, the highest rate for any age group, according to an AARP analysis.

The employment picture is uncertain as well. Although the August jobs report was positive – 162,000 jobs created – it followed an anemic July in which the U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs, mostly among women. Furthermore, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced negative revisions to past jobs reports, correcting previous jobs additions. Last year, Trump fired BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer, claiming that such negative revisions were “rigged” to reflect poorly on his administration. The overall unemployment rate stands at 4.1%, and the next report is due this Friday, Oct. 2.

Part of the president’s poor approval numbers comes from widespread frustration with his foreign policy. As of Monday, the war he started with Iran has lasted seven months without a clear indication of when it could end. Iranian leaders leaked over the weekend that they sent a new proposal to Trump to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days. Trump rejected the proposal but told Axios he expects further talks this week.

“Oil will come dropping down as soon as demand gives up. As soon as this war is over, oil is going to come plummeting down,” Trump told reporters Sunday. “Prices for groceries have come way down from – almost every price has come way down, and remember one thing: Oil is less expensive now than it was under the Biden administration.”

While the price of oil is well below the high-water mark during the Biden administration, uncertainty over shipping and a spike in diesel costs have contributed to a general concern among Americans over the cost of living. According to the Agriculture Department, the Consumer Price Index for all food rose 0.1% from July to August, currently standing at 2.7% higher than August 2025. Food price increases have not hit yet, but several food retailers have launched a discount arms race to respond to customer concerns. Aldi announced last week it would reduce prices on nearly one-third of its grocery products, amounting to an expected $86 million in savings. The discounts are slated to expire Nov. 3.

Meanwhile, Democratic candidates are hitting the campaign trail armed with talking points on costs and jobs, arguing that voters should make a party shift in November. Cook Political Report founder Charlie Cook said in an ABC News interview Sunday that the likelihood that Democrats reclaim House control is a “done deal.” He added that the chances of a Senate flip is “very realistic.”

Last week, Cook shifted 15 House races to favor Democrats. This puts 185 seats in solid blue territory and 23 in “lean” and “likely” Democrat territory. Twenty-two races are seen as toss-ups. In the Senate the Cook report has rated nine seats as Solid Democrat and three as Lean and Likely Democrat.

Yet Trump has downplayed polling this cycle, especially given multiple inaccurate predictions from pollsters during the primary cycle. On Monday, he praised Heritage Foundation President Kevin Roberts for an appearance on Fox News. Roberts claimed that negative polls predicting a blue wave are part of a misinformation campaign, often referred to as a “psy-op.”

“I’m old enough to remember so many times that Charlie Cook and the chattering class in Washington have been wrong,” Roberts said. “Is it a tough environment? Sure. That’s what American history would suggest for the party that’s in power. But I think that this prognosticating is a psy-op by so many of these polling firms … to depress conservative turnout.”

Trump is expected to travel to Oklahoma, Alabama, and Ohio, this week. On Saturday, he is scheduled to visit the key Dayton suburbs to stump for embattled GOP Sen. Jon Husted.

“I’ll be out there spending money, and helping every one of them get elected,” Trump posted to Truth Social. “I won most of these places, often by a landslide. MAGA, pretend I am on the ballot. Don’t let them open your Borders, and allow crime to again flourish.”