Trump’s Summer Polling Slump Looms Over Midterms

President Donald Trump is set to headline the Republican Party’s first-ever midterm convention next month in Dallas, an unprecedented gathering designed to energize GOP voters and help the party defend its narrow majorities in the House and Senate.

As the Sept. 9-10 event approaches, the president has touted the event as the prime time boost his party needs to energize GOP voters – even as his falling approval rating has deepened his party’s concerns about losing control of the House and Senate this fall.

Trump remains extraordinarily popular among Republican voters with 53% saying he is the president they most admire, ahead of Ronald Reagan at 18% and even Abraham Lincoln at 8%, as CNN reported earlier this week.

Yet, among all voters, Trump’s job approval has been at a net negative for much of his second term, and surveys in late summer show him increasingly underwater overall and on issues expected to dominate the midterm campaign: the economy, tariffs, and the war with Iran.

In March, Trump was just 11 points underwater in his overall approval rating, but the president’s net negative has increased to nearly 18% as of Thursday, the RealClearPolitics Polling Average shows.

This Friday marks six months since the U.S. entered the war with Iran, a conflict Trump had predicted would be short-lived. Polling this year has repeatedly shown public opposition to the war with Iran, with only 34.3% of Americans approving of Trump’s handling of the conflict, with 60.7% disapproving, according to the RCP’s Polling Average.

Americans are also souring on Trump’s economic stewardship, with many political analysts arguing that his handling of the economy remains a big stumbling block for him and the GOP heading into the midterms. Trump pressed ahead on his trade war with Canada this week even though just 34.5% of Americans approve of his record on the economy and curbing inflation with 62% disapproving.

Democrats maintain a steady edge in their odds of taking control of the House, holding a 6.4-point advantage over Republicans in their chances, RCP has reported. Flipping the Senate is a taller order but not out of reach. Democrats would need to gain four seats to win control of the Senate majority.

Whether the Dallas gathering shifts those numbers – or simply nationalizes a midterm that Republicans might prefer to localize – remains an open question with just over two months until Election Day.