Trump Approval Rating at Lowest Point of Either Term

Every president eventually hits a low point in approval. For President Donald Trump, that low is arriving at an unfortunate time, just weeks before the midterms.

On Wednesday, Trump’s net approval fell to a second-term low of -21.1, tying his first-term low, set on Dec. 13, 2017. His approval has since improved only marginally, to -20.9, with 38.8% approving and 59.7% disapproving, in the RealClearPolitics Polling Average. Previous two-term presidents Barack Obama and George W. Bush were also underwater at this point in their second terms, with approval of 41.5% and 41.3%, respectively.

The slide has significantly affected congressional polling. Democrats now lead by 8.7 points, their largest lead this cycle, in the RealClearPolitics Average for the Generic Congressional Vote, which asks voters which party’s congressional candidate they plan to vote for in their respective congressional elections. Democrats now have a 93% chance of winning the House in the midterms, according to Polymarket’s betting markets.

This is a greater lead than either Republicans or Democrats have had at this point recent midterm cycles going back to 2010. The closest comparison is 2018, when Democrats led by 7.8 points on Sept. 24, and ended up winning by 8.4 points and added 41 House seats, taking back the majority.

In the midterms during Obama’s and Bush’s second terms, when net approval of the president was also negative, the president’s party lost significant ground. In Obama’s case, Republicans expanded their House majority by 26 seats, from a 33-seat majority to 59; and in Bush's case, Democrats picked up 31 seats, flipping a 30-seat Republican majority to a 31-seat Democratic majority.

The troubling presidential approval and generic congressional ballot numbers for Republicans are bleeding over into Senate races. Currently, Texas Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton by 2.8 points in the RCP Average for the race. In Ohio, Republican Sen. Jon Husted trails former Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown by 4 points. In 2024, Trump won Texas by 13.7 points and Ohio by 11.2 points.

These large swings follow the swing in the generic congressional ballot. In 2024, Republicans won the generic ballot by 2.7 points. With Democrats now leading by 8.7 points, that represents an 11.4-point swing from 2024, which means states Trump won by around 11 points in 2024 might be in play.

Still, there are other states, such as Maine, that aren’t following the national trend. Republican Sen. Susan Collins trails challenger Troy Jackson by only 1.3 points in the latest RCP Average, despite Kamala Harris winning the state by 7 points in 2024. Collins has a history of overperforming relative to other Republicans in the state, having won in 2020 by 8.6 points despite Trump losing the state to Joe Biden by 9 points in the same election. Betting markets put Jackson’s chances of winning the seat at 67%.

Despite a Senate map that favors Republicans, with Democrats needing to pick up at least two states that Trump won by 11 points in 2024 to win control, Democrats are now favored to win back the Senate in betting markets. On Jan. 1 of this year, Republicans had a 66% chance of retaining the Senate; now, Democrats have a 63% chance of picking up enough seats to flip it.