Tight Finishes Likely in Key East Coast Tuesday Races

Voters in Virginia, New Jersey, and New York City will cast ballots Tuesday in elections that could offer an early read on the political mood heading into 2026. While all three areas lean Democratic, several of the contests have become competitive in the last stretch of the campaigns.

New Jersey

One of the competitive races is in New Jersey, where Republican Jack Ciattarelli faces Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill. The latest polls find that Sherrill is the favorite, leading in the RealClearPolitics Polling Average by 3.3 points. In the Average, all polls had Sherrill leading, though three polls from Atlas Intel, Trafalgar/InsiderAdvantage, and co/efficient had Sherrill up by just one point.

This polling still gives Ciattarelli a shot at winning. In the 2021 New Jersey gubernatorial election, Ciattarelli trailed Democrat Phil Murphy by 7.8 points in the final RCP Average, but Murphy only won the election by 2.8 points, a five-point swing in Ciattarelli’s direction. If a similar swing happens on Tuesday, Ciattarelli could come out with the win this time. Bettors do not think that is likely, however, as betting markets only give Ciattarelli a 17% chance to win.

Virginia

In Virginia, the interesting election isn’t the governor’s race, where Former Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger leads current Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears by 8.9 points in the RealClearPolitics Average. Even the closest poll, conducted by Trafalgar, still shows Spanberger ahead by four points. Betting markets also give Spanberger the race, currently favoring her 96% to 5% for Earle-Sears. Similarly, in the lieutenant governor race, Democrat Ghazala Hashmi has a 92% chance to beat Republican John Reid, according to betting markets.

The more interesting Virginia election is the attorney general race. Just under a month ago, it seemed similarly likely that Democrat Jay Jones would beat Republican Jason Miyares, with polls having him up by four to seven points in September. However, after a series of leaked texts surfaced in which Jones joked about shooting former Virginia House Speaker Todd Gilbert, the race shifted in Miyares’ favor.

Although he has since apologized for the messages, Miyares has since begun to lead in polls, currently leading by 1.6 points in the RCP Average. Only two of the 12 polls since the scandal did not have Miyares in the lead, one with them tied and one with Jones up two.

Only leading by 1.6 points is still too close for comfort for Miyares going into Election Day. Betting markets are split on the AG election, with Miyares leading 55% to 45%.

New York City

The other high-profile election Tuesday is for New York City mayor, where the race is all but settled. Self-proclaimed Democratic Socialist Zohran Mamdani, who was a little-known New York state representative one year ago, leads former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo by 14.7 points, 45.8% to 31.1% in the RCP Average. Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa trails both, only garnering 17.3%. Betting markets, which at one point had Cuomo at an 80% chance to win the mayorship, now have Mamdani as a 94% favorite.