The Texas Primaries That Could Reshape the Senate

Outside presidential contests, primaries rarely attract significant attention, as incumbents typically prevail and the decisive battle comes in the general election. The upcoming Texas Senate primaries are a notable exception, with the Republican establishment attempting to defend its position against challengers while Democrats search for the strongest nominee to mount another attempt at flipping Texas.

Republican Primary

Similar to the Senate Republican leadership battle in November 2024, when Sen. John Thune defeated MAGA-backed Sen. Rick Scott despite support from Elon Musk and other Trump allies, the Texas Senate primary is shaping up as another establishment-versus-MAGA contest. This time, however, the MAGA wing appears to hold the advantage. Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, who was impeached by the Texas House but acquitted by the Texas Senate in 2023, is challenging longtime incumbent Sen. John Cornyn, who has held the seat since 2002. Rep. Wesley Hunt, whose MAGA platform looks more like Paxton’s than Cornyn’s, trails both candidates.

Polls ahead of the March 2 primary show the race within a few points. The latest poll from the University of Texas, conducted Feb. 2-16, found Paxton at 36%, Cornyn at 34% and Hunt at 26%, though the poll surveyed only 350 likely voters, meaning Paxton’s lead falls within the margin of error. Another poll from the University of Houston, conducted Jan. 20-31 among 550 likely voters, also showed Paxton in the lead with 38%, followed by Cornyn at 31% and Hunt at 17%.

Though Hunt and Paxton are competing for a similar base of MAGA-aligned Republicans, Hunt will not be a spoiler for Paxton because if no candidate receives more than 50%, the race will advance to a May 26 runoff with the top two candidates. Hunt has said he will endorse Paxton if he is not one of the two candidates in the runoff. That could give an edge to Paxton, who is likely to win a plurality in the first primary and then expand his lead with Hunt’s endorsement. Betting markets have Paxton as an 81% favorite.

Democratic Primary

Tuesday’s primary results carry greater significance for Democrats, as Texas Reps. James Talarico and Jasmine Crockett vie for the nomination while aiming to accomplish what Beto O’Rourke could not in 2018 and 2022: turn Texas blue.

The three latest polls of the race show Crockett ahead. The University of Texas poll, which surveyed 369 likely Democratic primary voters, found Crockett leading by 12 points. The University of Houston poll found her ahead by 8 points, while a Texas Public Opinion Research poll showed her leading by 1 point. The last poll in the RCP Average that showed Talarico ahead was from Emerson College, conducted Jan. 10-12, which had Talarico up by 9 points.

Despite the latest polls showing Crockett in the lead, betting markets favor Talarico at 71%. Before the University of Texas poll was released, he led with an 80% chance of winning.

General Election

For Democrats, polls indicate Talarico would fare better in the general election. In the most likely matchup, Paxton vs. Talarico, Paxton led by 2 points in the University of Houston poll and was tied in the Emerson poll. Polls found similar results when Paxton faced Crockett. In other matchups, Talarico performed on average 1 point better against Cornyn and 0.5 points better against Hunt than Crockett did.

These narrow margins coincide with Republicans facing midterm trouble across the board. In the latest generic congressional ballot polling, Democrats hold a 4.6-point advantage, representing a 7.3-point shift toward Democrats compared with 2024.

While President Donald Trump carried Texas by 13.6 points, suggesting Republicans would remain strongly favored statewide, Sen. Ted Cruz’s narrower 8.5-point victory over Colin Allred provides a different benchmark. A swing of roughly 7 points from Cruz’s 2024 win would place Democrats within a boulder’s throw of victory. It still is Texas, though, where Republicans have not lost a statewide race since the lieutenant governor’s contest in 1994, so the Republican Party is still favored to hold the Senate seat, with a 66% chance in betting markets.

If Democrats can prevail, the election would also carry major ramifications for national politics. Democrats are widely favored to win back the House, given their lead in generic congressional ballot polling and the fact that the president’s party has retained the chamber only once in midterm elections since 1982.

The Senate, however, appears more favorable for Republicans given their current 53-seat majority. Democrats are favored in North Carolina and Maine but would still need to win two additional seats in Alaska, Ohio, Texas or Iowa to secure a 51-49 majority. If Texas were to flip, Ohio could follow, giving Democrats control of the chamber and making it more difficult for Republicans to advance legislation and their agenda after the midterm elections.