The Issues That Decide Presidential Elections

Presidential campaigns are shaped by countless factors, from candidate quality and turnout to the political environment and events outside either campaign’s control. However, one of the simplest ways to understand the results of the last two decades of presidential elections is to start with what voters themselves say matters most.

Looking back at recent presidential elections shows how useful that lens can be. In 2024, the top issues, according to an Economist/YouGov poll taken shortly before the election, were inflation at 24%, immigration at 13%, and jobs/the economy at 11%. On all three issues, President Trump led Kamala Harris by between 5 and 13 points. He, of course, went on to win the election.

That relationship between issue salience and candidate advantage has appeared repeatedly in recent elections. In 2020, the economy was again the top issue at 27%, followed by health care at 24% and climate change at 11%. Although Trump led slightly on the economy, 51%-49%, according to a Harvard-Harris poll, Biden led by much larger margins on health care, 57%-43%, and climate change, 64%-36%.

The same pattern was visible four years earlier. Even as polls found Hillary Clinton leading nationally and in many swing states. Trump still led on the most important issue, the economy, holding a 52%-44% advantage over Clinton in an October 2016 CNN/ORC poll. He also led 49%-47% on terrorism, which ranked as the fourth-most important issue. On the second-most important issue, health care, however, Clinton led 55%-40%, according to a Pew Research poll.

The economy remained the dominant issue in 2012 and 2008, while in 2004 it ranked close behind the Iraq war and terrorism. But 2012 was the first election to significantly break from the trend of the candidate leading on the most important issue winning the election. Depending on the poll, 37%-59% of voters rated the economy or jobs as the most important issue, and Mitt Romney led Barack Obama on the issue 50%-46%, according to a Monmouth poll taken in November 2012. Still, Obama won the national popular vote by 3.9 points and carried most of the major swing states, giving him the election.

In the two elections before 2012, however, the pattern was also present. In 2008, Barack Obama led John McCain53%-39% on the economy, which dominated voters’ concerns amid the financial crisis. Fifty-five percent said the economy was the country’s most important issue, compared with just 11% who said the Iraq war. In 2004, a Gallup poll found that the war in Iraq was the most important issue for 23% of voters, followed by the economy at 21% and terrorism at 16%. Depending on the poll, Bush and Kerry each led on the economy at different points, but Bush held clear advantages on Iraq and terrorism, leading in an October 2004 Gallup poll by 4 points on the war and 11 points on terrorism.

All of this points to two significant conclusions. First, since 2004, the economy and inflation have been either the top issue or a very close second, and the candidate voters trust more on the economy has usually been in a strong position to win. More than three decades after its coinage, “It’s the economy, stupid” continues to hold true.

The second is that the pattern has held in nearly every election: The candidate leading on the most important issue has usually gone on to win, with only two clear exceptions since 2004. In 2012, Romney led on the economy even though it was by far the most important issue, but still lost. In 2020, Trump also led on the economy, yet Biden won after holding much larger advantages on other major issues at the time, including the pandemic, health care and climate change. Outside of those two elections, the candidate leading on the top issue has won the presidency.

That makes the issue especially pertinent heading into the next presidential election. Currently, inflation and the economy lead as the most important issues, at 26% and 15%, respectively, followed by health care at 11%. On the economy and inflation, Trump currently has deeply negative approval ratings of -27.5 and -40.8, respectively, according to the latest RCP Averages.

Because the two most likely candidates to win the 2028 Republican primary, JD Vance and Marco Rubio, are members of the administration and closely tied to Trump’s record on these issues, concerns about inflation and the economy could pose significant obstacles.

The economy’s prominence could also create challenges for a candidate perceived as more ideologically radical, such as Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a member of the New York City Democratic Socialists of America. Only 31% of Americans say they have a favorable view of socialism, while 43% have an unfavorable view, according to a recent YouGov poll. With 51% also saying they consider Ocasio-Cortez a socialist, that perception could become a significant issue for her heading into 2028 if she runs and wins the Democratic primary.