The Cake Is Almost Baked

We’re officially one month from Election Day, and here is where things stand:

President Trump’s job approval rating is currently at 38.5%, up slightly from his second-term low of 38.2%, which he hit on Oct. 2. As a point of reference, on Election Day in 2018, Trump’s job approval rating stood at 43.5%.

The average national price of gas, which I argued on Fox News last week is the most important metric in this election, ticked up to $4.31 per gallon over the weekend after falling steadily for the past week.

Democrats currently lead in the Generic Congressional ballot by 8.5 points, 51.2% to 42.7% for the Republicans. In 2018, Democrats won the national House vote by a nearly identical measure, 8.4%, and netted 41 House seats.

RCP’s House map currently shows Democrats winning 226 seats, Republicans 185 seats, with 24 seats remaining “Toss Ups.” The average pickup for House Democrats today stands at +23 seats.

In the Senate, RCP’s map currently shows Democrats at 46 seats, Republicans at 45 seats, and nine seats rated “Toss Up.” As of today, Democrats lead in the RCP Poll Averages in eight of those nine races. If the election were held today (it isn’t) and if the polls are precisely accurate (they aren’t), Democrats would pick up a net of six seats and control of the Senate.

Now to the caveats:

First, there is still a month left. While the fundamentals of this election are pretty much locked in place, there is still time for individual races to move based on political ads, debates, October surprises, and other unforeseen occurrences. In other words, the cake is “almost baked,” but not fully out of the oven yet.

In addition, there is the possibility that the polls are wrong. There has been a great deal of skepticism, much of it warranted, about whether the polls are overstating the Democrats’ position – as they have in the recent past. The answer is unknowable until all the votes are counted, but even moderate polling bias in favor of Democrats could mean a substantially different outcome.

For example, if Senate Democrats underperform their current polls by 2 points, it would cut their wins in half, to a net gain of 3 seats. If they underperform the polls by 4 points, Republicans would actually gain one seat, winning Michigan and Minnesota while still losing North Carolina.

That would be a surprising result, but it is not completely out of the question.