Texas Senate Race Emerges as Key 2026 Battleground

As the November general election approaches, the Texas Senate race is emerging as one of the most closely watched contests of the 2026 midterms. With Republicans holding a narrow 53-47 majority in the Senate, the outcome in Texas could help determine which party controls the Senate next year.

Democrats view Texas, alongside North Carolina and Maine, as their best opportunity to gain a Republican-held seat. The race between Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democratic state Rep. James Talarico has drawn national attention as Democrats seek to elect the state’s first democratic senator since 1993.

The Republican candidate, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, defeated longtime Sen. John Cornyn in the Republican primary, bringing an end to Cornyn’s 24-year Senate career. Paxton’s campaign is endorsed by President Trump. On the Democratic side, Talarico narrowly defeated Jasmine Crockett in the primary, 52.4% to 46.2%, giving Democrats their best opportunity in decades to win a statewide race.

The race became more competitive after the Republican primary election. Before the primary, Cornyn appeared to be the stronger Republican general election candidate, having served four terms in the U.S. Senate and winning reelection in 2020 by nearly 10 percentage points (53.5% to 43.9%). Paxton’s victory over Cornyn reshaped the race and made the general election considerably more competitive.

A survey conducted by the El Paso Times, July 27-30, polled 1,200 Texans who intend to vote in the Nov. 3 general election. Talarico holds a narrow 2-point lead, 47% to 45%. Another 2% of respondents support Libertarian Ted Brown, while 6% remain undecided.

The poll shows that Talarico is more popular among younger voters. Among voters ages 35 to 54, 55% support Talarico, while 59% of voters under 35 back him. In contrast, Paxton performs better among voters 55 and older, leading Talarico 56% to 38%.

The Texas governor’s race is also taking shape, with incumbent Republican Gov. Greg Abbott running against Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa. Nearly all Paxton voters (96%) said they also support Abbott, while 0% said they support Hinojosa.

Among Talarico voters, 90% said they plan to vote for Hinojosa, while 4% said they would vote for Abbott. Likewise, 89% of Abbott voters support Paxton, while 3% voting for Talarico. Among Hinojosa supporters, 98% plan to vote for Talarico, while 0% plan to back Paxton, indicating strong alignment with party affiliations.

This wouldn’t be the first close Senate race in the state. Republican Ted Cruz’s 2.6-point victory over Democrat Beto O’Rourke in 2018 raised Democratic hopes that Texas was becoming competitive statewide. But while O’Rourke excelled in urban areas, Cruz’s overwhelming margins in rural Texas proved decisive. Similar to the 2026 Senate race, Trump had endorsed Cruz.

The 2022 Texas governor’s race also provides useful context. Republican Greg Abbott defeated Democrat Beto O’Rourke by 10 percentage points, 54.8% to 43.9%. Abbott’s campaign focused on border security and economic opportunity, themes that remain central to his current campaign. Despite O’Rourke’s record-breaking fundraising effort, Abbott won comfortably, helping build support behind his 2026 reelection campaign.