Texas Senate Race a Dead Heat as Early Voting Begins

Texas voters began casting ballots on Monday, the first day of early voting in the Lone Star State. Recent polling indicates the Republican stronghold across local and federal government could be in question once the results are tallied in November.

The RCP Average has Democratic state Rep. James Talarico leading Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton in the Senate race by 2.2 percentage points. A CBS News survey released on Friday found that 51% of likely voters chose Talarico. Among all likely voters, 48% of Talarico’s supporters said they would cast a ballot for him because they like him. Meanwhile, 41% of Paxton’s supporters said they chose him because he is the party’s nominee, and 36% said their main reason was to oppose the other candidate.

The Talarico campaign is banking on Paxton’s unlikability and President Trump’s low approval ratings to make the case for independent and moderate voters to move to the Democratic side. He could have a broad coalition. In a report published last week, the Texas Politics Project, which partners with YouGov, found that Talarico leads likely voters in many camps: independents, Latinos, urban and suburban voters, and women. Paxton is leading among men and rural voters.

Other Texas races could also be in play. Voters will also elect a governor, and the race is even narrower between incumbent Gov. Greg Abbott, a Republican, and Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa. The RCP Average has Abbott ahead by 2.1 percentage points.

In the lieutenant governor and attorney general races, Democratic candidates lead their Republican opponents, according to the Texas Politics Project. Many of the races are within the margin of error. Notably, Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick is battling an overall 38% unfavorable rating and is polling around 3 points behind Democrat Vikki Goodwin. Patrick won his first election to the role by nearly 20 points in 2014 and won reelection by 5 points in 2018 and 10 points in 2022.

Trump has visited Texas three times in the past two months, and Vice President JD Vance was in Tyler last week to stump for Paxton. Paxton has launched his final bus tour for the campaign, scheduling at least 30 stops over the next two weeks. He will end the “Come and Take It” tour at the Alamo in San Antonio for Election Day. Speaking to voters in Allen, Texas, on Monday, Paxton promised to work on making life affordable.

“My agenda is very simple: I’m going to fight so every Texan can buy a home, raise a family, and live a healthy life without struggling to make ends meet,” Paxton said. He added later, “On every front, I will fight to make your life better, change Washington, and hold bad actors accountable, just like I’ve done as attorney general.”

Talarico has launched his own bus tour, titled “Clear Eyes, Full Hearts,” in a nod to a famous catchphrase from the hit television series “Friday Night Lights.” His tour will conclude in Austin on Nov. 2. At each stop so far, he’s highlighted that his campaign will not accept donations from super-PACs, calling it a people-driven campaign.

“They are scared. They are terrified, they see what we see: that we’re about to win this election,” Talarico said about the Paxton campaign. “We are going to shock the nation, we’re going to shock the world when we end 30 years of one-party rule in our state and elect a senator who’s going to serve all of us.”