Texas GOP: ‘Houston, We Have a Problem’

For the Republican Party, it’s not just Houston; it may be Dallas and the rest of Texas, too. Iowa, too. And maybe Ohio.

New horserace surveys by the Fox News Poll continue to show tight Senate races in states Republicans took for granted when the 2026 election cycle began. In the Lone Star State, according the Fox poll, it may be getting worse. In July, Fox had Democrat James Talarico leading Republican state Attorney General Ken Paxton among registered voters by 3 percentage points. The latest survey, released Thursday at 6 p.m., has Talarico’s leading widening to 7 points – though it’s only 2 points among “likely” voters.

If this data is correct, the hurdle for Republicans isn’t an easy one to negotiate: It’s the candidate himself. Asked which party they want to win control of the Senate, 50% of likely Texas voters say the GOP, with 49% saying they prefer the Democrats. But this stated desire isn’t enough to make a critical mass of Texans vote for Paxton, a candidate who has been mired in scandal for years.

“Talarico enjoys a net positive personal rating of 8 points (52% favorable vs. 44% unfavorable), while Paxton’s is underwater by 18 points (40% vs. 58%),” noted Fox News correspondent Victoria Balara. “Republicans are six times more likely to view Paxton unfavorably (32%) than Democrats do Talarico (5%).”

Nor is the mix of issues on Texans’ minds trending in Republicans’ favor. The cost of living remains the single most important issue to voters there – 68% say it’s “extremely important” – but artificial intelligence, which President Trump champions, has emerged as a concern cited as extremely important by 34% of Texans.

While we’re on the subject of popular culture references (although in “Apollo 13,” director Ron Howard took minor liberties with the “Houston we have a problem” reference), let’s turn our attention northward to Iowa. This is another state Republicans weren’t anticipating much difficulty. But that’s what they’ve got – trouble right here in River City, you might say, just like in “The Music Man,” the iconic film set in the mythical town of River City, Iowa.

Perhaps the situation in Iowa isn’t as bleak for Republicans as reported in last week’s Marist Poll, which showed Republican candidate Ashley Hinson down 8 points to Democrat Josh Turek. But Thursday’s Fox News Poll provided scant consolation. Among registered voters, Fox has Turek up 50%-46%, just as it did in June (though when polling “likely” voters, Turek’s lead is only 2 points.)

If there was any worrisome news for Democrats in the Fox data, it came Wednesday from Michigan, where Democratic candidate Abdul el-Sayed is running against Republican Rep. Mike Rogers. Polls have consistently shown Rogers trailing Sayed, but in the Fox News survey of likely voters, the race is nearly tied, with el-Sayed leading Rogers 50-49.

At the recent Republican midterm convention in Dallas held on the eve of the 25th anniversary of 9/11, Rogers recounted his military service and the heroism of Michiganders on that fateful day and expressed indignation that his opponent is “somebody that campaigns with Hasan Piker, who thinks America deserved it.”

“Yeah, but here we are,” Rogers continued. “Abdul el-Sayed has chosen Hasan as his running mate. Together, they attack America. They excused extremism. They treat our country like it’s the villain. And it doesn’t stop there. Abdul is funding his campaign with money from terrorist groups like the Muslim Brotherhood.”

Michigan politics has long been a cauldron of racial jostling and shifting allegiances. In “Gran Torino,” Clint Eastwood, playing embittered Korean War veteran Walt Kowalski, muses aloud about his son: “I work in the Ford factory for fifty years and he’s out selling Japanese cars.”

But the world turns. Things change. Welcome to the 2026 midterm elections.