South Carolina Could Elect a Democratic Senator

Like his predecessor, Strom Thurmond, who held his Senate seat for 48 years despite switching parties in 1964, Lindsey Graham never had trouble keeping his South Carolina Senate seat. Since his death in July, the seat has become competitive, and his successor now holds only single-digit leads in recent polls.

The tightest recent poll comes from Trafalgar Group, which found Darline Graham leading Dr. Annie Andrews 43.4% to 42.3%, a 1.1-point lead well within the survey’s margin of error of +/-2.9 points. Graham, sister of the late Lindsey Graham, was appointed to replace him in the Senate and then won the Republican primary for this year’s Senate race. Andrews ran in 2022 against Republican Nancy Mace in South Carolina’s 1st Congressional District but lost by 14 points.

There are a few concerning parts of the current polling for Republicans. One is that 59.1% of those surveyed in the Trafalgar poll identified as Republicans, and only 29% identified as Democrats. That is a larger Republican share than Trump’s 2024 vote share in South Carolina, where he won 58.23% to Kamala Harris’ 40.36%. If the poll slightly overestimated Republicans’ share of the electorate, Graham could even be trailing Andrews.

The other September polls, from Rasmussen Reports and InsiderAdvantage, had Andrews trailing by just 5 points and 2 points, respectively. In the RCP Average, Graham leads by only 2.6 points.

Other states with similar 2024 margins are also in play. Senate seats in Texas and Alaska, states Trump won by 13.7 points and 13.1 points, respectively, are competitive, and Trump’s 17.9-point margin in South Carolina doesn’t take it off the table.

Working in Graham’s favor is that midterms tend to overrepresent older voters, a group she leads. Among voters ages 18-29, Graham trailed Andrews 59.7% to 18.3%, while she led Andrews 50.5% to 38.5% among voters 65+.

That turnout gap is substantial. In the 2022 midterms, 64.6% of eligible voters 65 and older cast ballots, compared with 25.6% of those 18 to 24, according to Census Bureau data.

A sizable chunk of the electorate is still up for grabs, however. In the Trafalgar poll, 5.9% of respondents chose another candidate and 8.5% were undecided, enough to swing a race separated by barely a point. Undecided voters will get their first look at the two candidates side by side Oct. 11, when Graham and Andrews debate on SCETV.

Betting markets are still skeptical of Andrews, despite the close polls. In the latest Polymarket betting odds, Graham has an 87% chance to keep the seat.

Andrews, a former Charleston pediatrician, has positioned herself as a moderate and built her campaign around affordability. She has made Graham’s support for Trump a central line of attack, most recently criticizing her vote against an Iran war powers resolution as energy costs tied to the nearly seven-month conflict continue to climb.

The nonbinding measure, which would have directed Trump to withdraw U.S. troops from hostilities in Iran unless Congress authorized the war, failed 50-49 on Sept. 24. All but four Republicans voted against it, including Sen. Jon Husted of Ohio and Sen. Dan Sullivan of Alaska, who also face competitive races. Graham Nordone has responded by portraying Andrews’ views as coming from the "Democratic Socialist playbook," while pointing to her own conservative voting record during her short time in the Senate.

After more than seven decades under Strom Thurmond and Lindsey Graham, a seat that neither ever had trouble holding will now come down to a debate and a few points among undecided voters.