Senate Polls Narrow Across Eight Battleground States

Seven out of eight close Senate races lean toward Democratic candidates in the latest RCP Averages. A slate of new polling released this week shows some margins narrowing in key states, while Democrats are pulling ahead in others. In many cases, struggling Republican candidates have also had to reckon with President Donald Trump’s approval rating, now nearly 19 points underwater in the latest RCP Average. The president has promised to visit all battleground races in the lead-up to November 3.

Texas

A new poll released Thursday from Emerson College/Nexstar Media found state Rep. James Talarico 1 percentage point ahead of Republican state Attorney General Ken Paxton. Another poll released earlier in the week found a three-point advantage for Talarico. Although the race is in a dead heat, the greatest bloc of shifting voters was among Texas Hispanics. Emerson College Polling Executive Director Spencer Kimball said that Texas Hispanic voters who voted for Trump in 2024 are now breaking for Talarico by 15 points.

The Hill/Emerson College Polling also asked respondents about the midterm convention in Dallas, which concluded a day before the poll began. Around 90% of Texas voters had heard about the convention. Of that group, 59% of Republicans and 53% of Democrats said they were more excited to vote because of the convention. Around 68% of independent voters said the convention had “no impact” on their motivation to vote.

Michigan

Two different polls released Thursday found that Democratic candidate Abdul El-Sayed leads in the Senate race against former Rep. Mike Rogers. Emerson College/Nexstar media gave El-Sayed a 2-point lead, with 4% of voters undecided. The Washington Post-Schar School poll also found El-Sayed polling at 48% compared to Rogers at 46%, but it also noted that the political environment in Michigan is extremely favorable for Democrats, making El-Sayed’s narrow lead notable. Around 53% of Michigan voters said they want Democrats to control the Senate. However, more voters are undecided about whether El-Sayed is the one to send to Washington.

Alaska

The latest RCP Average has Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola 3 points ahead of incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan after a Fabrizio/Anzalone poll published this week. But the polls are more detailed because Alaska uses a ranked-choice voting system. If the election were held today, around 46% of voters would likely vote for Peltola, 41% for Sullivan, and 14% for other candidates, including another man named Dan Sullivan. By a final third round, the poll found Peltola would likely win 53% to 47%. Both candidates have a high degree of name recognition due to their work in Washington, but more voters tend to have a positive view of Peltola (49%) compared to Sullivan (40%).

Maine

A Quantus Survey released this week has been the only good one for weeks for Republican incumbent Sen. Susan Collins, but it only found her ahead of Democratic candidate Troy Jackson by 1 point. Quantus found “very little daylight between the candidates,” tied and with similar voting bases on age, gender, and geography. Nearly 70% of respondents remained undecided. Jackson, who has only been in the race since July, has dropped slightly in overall favorability and the generic ballot. Nevertheless, the RCP Average has him up by nearly 2 points.

Iowa

Of the eight toss-up races, U.S. Rep. Ashley Hinson is the only Republican candidate leading in the RCP Average, but her lead is within the margin of error. A co/efficient poll released Thursday found Hinson 4 percentage points ahead, but 11% of voters are either undecided or voting for a Libertarian candidate. Iowa has reliably voted for Trump in every presidential election, by wide margins. However, 52% of respondents in the latest poll disapproved of his job performance. The poll also found Democratic candidate and current Auditor General Rob Sand 4 points ahead of Republican candidate Zach Lahn in the race for governor.

Minnesota

The Senate race in Minnesota is narrowing to a tie, according to the latest KSTP/SurveyUSA poll released this week. Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan was 5 points ahead of former sports broadcaster Michele Tafoya last month, but her lead has dwindled to a dead tie, with 12% of voters still undecided. Tafoya’s margins among male voters have increased while Flanagan’s support among women has fallen by double digits. Tafoya is running on a Republican platform but has said she is pro-choice, departing from much of the party on abortion views. On Thursday, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez formally endorsed Flanagan, who defeated more moderate Rep. Angie Craig in the primaries earlier this year. Flanagan is viewed as part of the growing progressive coalition seeking office in Washington.

North Carolina

President Trump stumped for Republican candidate Michael Whatley in North Carolina on Wednesday night, around the same time that new polling found his hand-picked candidate far behind. A new Carolina Journal/Harper poll found former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper 15 percentage points ahead of Whatley. The RCP Average has Cooper ahead by 8.5 points.

The situation on the ground could connect to the president’s own sinking approval ratings and general satisfaction with Democrats in the state. Even though Trump has won the state in three presidential elections, 57% of respondents disapproved of Trump’s handling of his job, and 41% approved. By comparison, just over 49% of respondents approved of Democratic Gov. Josh Stein, compared with around 33% who disapproved. Exactly 50% of respondents said they would be less likely to vote for a Trump-endorsed candidate.