Rubio Surges in 2028 Betting Markets After Press Briefing

Looking back to Marco Rubio and Donald Trump’s contentious sparring in the 2016 Republican primary debates, few would have guessed that Rubio would, in a future election, be the favorite in a race where Trump’s endorsement will likely mean victory in the 2028 primary. However, in the latest betting market odds, Rubio is now the favorite to win the 2028 general election.

The impetus for this latest surge in support for Rubio was his press briefing Tuesday, when he filled in for Karoline Leavitt, who is on maternity leave. The most viral question to come out of the briefing was one in which a reporter asked Rubio what his hope for America was. With the eloquence of a prerecorded speech, he responded, “… each generation has left the next generations of Americans freer, more prosperous, safer, and that is our goal as well.” The video was then clipped by Rubio himself and turned into what looks very similar to a campaign ad.

This answer and press briefing alone boosted his odds of winning the presidency significantly. On Monday, his odds of winning the 2028 U.S. presidential election were 15%, and by Thursday it had jumped to 19%. This put him ahead of Vance, who sits at 17%.

Trailing Vance and Rubio were a host of Democratic candidates. Newsom topped the list at 16%, followed by Jon Ossoff at 6.6%, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Kamala Harris at 5.4%, and Josh Shapiro, Andy Beshear, and Pete Buttigieg all around 3%.

Still, in the Republican primary betting markets Vance leads with 38%, followed by Rubio at 27% and Tucker Carlson at 7%. Vance leads in the primary while Rubio leads in the general election because betting markets predict Rubio would be more likely than Vance to win the general election if he wins the primary.

Despite Rubio’s rise in the 2028 betting odds beginning in early 2026, his polling numbers have improved only slightly. Since early January, he has moved from 9.3% to 14% in the RCP Average, not enough to put a significant dent in Vance’s polling lead, where he maintains 45.5%.

Whoever ends up winning the Republican primary will have an uphill battle in the general election. Betting markets put the Democratic Party at a 62% chance to win the 2028 presidential election. (Trump, after surviving the Butler assassination attempt and before Biden dropped out of the race, had a 65% chance to win.)

One major reason Democrats hold the advantage is that voters do not believe the central issues of the 2024 election – inflation and the economy – have been resolved. Polls show Democrats now earning more trust than Republicans on those issues, a reversal from the dynamic that helped Trump and the GOP in 2024.

History also signals a difficult environment for Republicans. Since Herbert Hoover, the party holding the White House has won a third consecutive term with a nonincumbent nominee only once: in 1988, when George H.W. Bush succeeded Ronald Reagan, whose approval rating was around 60% near the election. Trump’s approval rating currently sits at just 40.5%, meaning the likely Republican candidates, both of whom are closely tied to the administration, could struggle to gain traction because of their association with an unpopular White House.