Polls: MOU and End to Iran War Very Popular

Operation Epic Fury tanked President Trump’s net approval, from -11.4 on the day the war started to -19 in late May. However, the administration might find some respite from declining approval ratings if the negotiated memorandum of understanding holds, as the deal’s terms and the end of hostilities in Iran are largely popular.

When asked about the deal itself, 32% said they support the MOU, while 24% said they oppose it, according to the latest Economist/YouGov poll, taken June 19-22 after the deal was signed June 17.

The exact terms of the deal were viewed even more favorably. The most popular provision was reopening the Strait of Hormuz for 60 days toll-free, which had 69% support and only 6% opposed. Similarly, the promise that Iran will not develop nuclear weapons and will work with the U.S. to “negotiate the disposition” of enriched nuclear material had 69% support and only 8% opposed.

Even the concession that the U.S. will lift all sanctions on Iranian crude oil and unfreeze Iranian assets had 41% support, compared with 27% opposition. The only provision in the MOU with more opposition than support was that “the U.S. and its partners will develop a plan to provide Iran with $300 billion for reconstruction and economic development,” which had 23% support and 46% opposition. Given that it was a concession, the lack of support is expected.

Despite support for the terms of the MOU, concern remains about the deal falling apart. After the ceasefire was signed, despite the MOU explicitly stating that it included Lebanon, all allies of Iran and all allies of the U.S., Israel and Hezbollah exchanged attacks over the weekend, putting the ceasefire in jeopardy. Since Israel and Hezbollah agreed to a separate ceasefire, fighting in the region has lessened, though occasional strikes persist.

The vast majority, 81%, said it is very or somewhat likely that negotiations will fail and the war will restart, while only 19% said it is somewhat or very unlikely. Similarly, 42% said they think the Strait of Hormuz will not remain open permanently, while only 16% said they think it will.

Oil markets, however, are pricing in a lower risk that the ceasefire will collapse and that oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz will be severely disrupted again. On Thursday, Brent crude was trading around $73-$75 per barrel, close to prewar levels, while September Brent futures, which reflect the market’s current pricing of oil for delivery in September, were also near $74. That suggests traders expect supply conditions to remain relatively stable over the next few months.

Even if the deal does hold, Americans still aren’t fans of the enterprise as a whole: Only 26% said going to war with Iran was the right decision, while 54% said it was the wrong decision. Only 25% said the U.S. won the Iran war, even knowing the conditions of the MOU, while 22% said Iran won and 41% said neither side won.

While the direct effects of the Iran war might be positive, Americans are also concerned about the downstream effects on future conflicts and America’s position in the world. When asked whether America’s standing in the world has improved or worsened since Donald Trump became president in 2026, only 26% said America’s standing has improved, while 54% said it has worsened. While the issue was split along partisan lines, independents sided with Democrats, with 63% of self-identified independents saying America’s standing has declined.