November Election Forecast: Watch Out for ICE

No domestic political issue has been more controversial over the last year than ICE (Immigration and Customs Enforcement). The shooting deaths of anti-ICE protesters Renee Good and Alex Pretti in Minnesota in January prompted a media firestorm and widespread outrage among Democrats, eventually leading to the ouster of DHS Secretary Kristi Noem.

In the ensuing months, Democrats have aggressively rebooted the campaign to “defund ICE,” with congressional Democrats going so far as to partially shut down the government for nearly 10 weeks in an effort to limit funding and impose restrictions on ICE, Customs and Border Protection (CBP), and Citizenship and Immigration Services (CIS).

Vows to “defund ICE” have featured prominently in nearly every Democratic primary race for U.S. House and Senate this year. On Friday, in a letter to the Maine Secretary of State, accused rapist Graham Platner officially withdrew from the Senate race, signing off by saying, “F*ck ICE. Free Palestine. Up the Hearts.”

In an unfortunate confluence, on Monday morning in Biddeford, Maine, ICE was involved in a shooting that left dead a 26-year-old Colombian national with a deportation order. ICE officers said the man “weaponized” his vehicle. Immigrants’ rights groups say the man had a Social Security number and had been authorized to work in the U.S. The state attorney general is launching an investigation.

This comes on the heels of an ICE shooting in Houston last week, where 52-year-old Lorenzo Salgado Araujo was shot dead by ICE agents. Salgado Araujo moved to Texas from Mexico 35 years ago, married, raised three sons, and started a home-building construction business. He was on his way to work when ICE agents, apparently seeking another person, gave chase to his white van and shot him while he was still behind the wheel. Once again, federal officials asserted that the decedent had ignored commands to pull over and was “weaponizing” his vehicle against ICE agents who say they fired in self-defense. The family disputes ICE’s account and local Democrats have demanded an independent investigation.

Public opinion on ICE, and illegal immigration more broadly, continues to be sharply divided along partisan lines.

A Civiqs poll from June showed that 76% of Democrats are in favor of abolishing ICE, while 88% of Republicans are opposed. Independents are narrowly split, with 49% opposing abolishing ICE and 42% in favor.

A Cygnal poll from February showed an equally dramatic split over the question of whether ICE should “enforce federal immigration laws to remove illegal immigrants from the U.S.” Only 16% of Democrats voiced support, compared to 94% of Republicans and 52% of independents.

On a more bipartisan note, a Gallup survey released just yesterday showed that a solid majority of Americans (73%) continue to believe that immigration is a “good thing” for the U.S. That includes 91% of Democrats, 73% of independents, and 50% of Republicans.

However, despite that broad agreement, partisan divisions immediately reappear when discussing possible policy proposals surrounding immigration:

• Sixty-four percent of Democrats strongly favor allowing immigrants living in the country illegally the chance to become U.S. citizens if they meet certain requirements. Only 13% of Republicans agree.

• Fifty-three percent of Republicans strongly favor deporting all immigrants who are living in the United States illegally. Only 6% of Democrats agree.

• Fifty-four percent of Republicans strongly favor hiring “significantly” more Border Patrol agents. Seven percent of Democrats agree.

• Sixty-three percent of Republicans strongly favor “banning” sanctuary cities. Only 5% of Democrats agree.

If there is one thing that both sides can agree upon, it’s this: Illegal immigration and ICE will continue to be a major issue in the upcoming November election and beyond.