Mr. Dooley Was Right – Even Iran Watches the Polls

Back in 1901, when Iran was still called Persia and the shah was selling his nation’s oil rights to an enterprising Brit named William Knox D’Arcy, American humorist Finley Peter Dunne coined a famous aphorism about the power of public opinion.

Rendering the wisdom of everyman “Mr. Dooley” in an Irish brogue, Dunne noted wryly: “No matter whether the Constitution follows the flag or not, th’ Soopreme Court follows the illiction returns.”

Notwithstanding the lifetime tenure of the federal judiciary, this aphorism has (mostly) stood the test of time. But judges and American politicians aren’t the only ones who read election returns – or public opinion surveys. So do foreign governments, even those run by brutish tyrants who wouldn’t allow a poll – or even an honest election – to take place in their own country.

Iran is a case in point. Although Iranians who petition their own government for social change are shot, hanged, tortured, and imprisoned, Iran’s president recently penned an open letter to the American people encouraging them to oppose President Trump’s war against the regime. Iran’s rulers, at least those who have lived to tell the tale, are apparently emboldened by two developments. The first is that their desperate gambit to close the Strait of Hormuz induced cowering weakness on the part of the West instead of resolve.

The second, as President Masoud Pezeshkian’s open letter indicates, is that public opinion in the United States – never mind Europe – has quickly metastasized against Trump’s air war. The latest YouGov poll underscores the ominous partisan split on the issue, as well as widespread antipathy to the very idea of U.S. troops being any part of a ground invasion or occupying force.

Only one-third of Americans surveyed “strongly or somewhat” support the Iran war, while a clear majority (53%) are against it. “Almost all Democrats oppose the war (only 9% support it and 84% oppose it), as do a majority of independents (24% vs. 57%),” YouGov noted. Republicans favor it by more than 3-1.

That said, Donald Trump’s metaphorical boast about being able to shoot someone on Fifth Avenue and getting a pass from his supporters isn’t a universal response, at least when it comes to foreign wars: Slightly more than three-fourths of self-described “MAGA Republicans” support the administration’s efforts in Iran, according to the YouGov survey – which leaves a sizeable chunk of Trump’s fan base skeptical of this policy.

YouGov was in the field before the recent announcement of two-week cessation in the bombing campaign while negotiations take place, so these attitudes may not be cast in concrete. But one finding is unlikely to change. Only 8% of independents say they favor the idea of U.S. ground troops in Iran, with 63% opposed (the balance is undecided).

Among Democrats, the responses were so extreme in their opposition that nothing is likely to change minds: Only 4% of Democrats would favor ground troops being dispatched to Iran, presumably for the purposes of regime change, with 86% opposed.

This tracks with other recent polling done by the Pew Research Center documenting a sharp turn against Israel – especially among young voters, and most especially among young Democrats. This partly explains the disquieting sight of prominent Democrats playing footsies with progressive and Islamic activists who are not only anti-Israel, but who sound pro-Hamas and in some cases even pro-Iran.

The change of heart against Israel is clearly driven by concerns that Israel has gone too far in avenging the attacks of October 7 and in being willing to kill civilians in efforts to secure its borders and defang Iran and its proxies, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu becoming a veritable lightning rod for critics of the coordinated U.S.-Israel military campaign.

“Six-in-ten Americans have a very or somewhat unfavorable view of Israel, up 7 percentage points since last year and nearly 20 points since 2022,” reports Pew. “The share of U.S. adults with a very unfavorable view of Israel (28%) has also increased 9 points since last year – and nearly tripled from 10% in 2022.”

Pew’s pollsters also detailed how eight in 10 Democrats or Democratic-leaning independents have an unfavorable view of Israel, notwithstanding the fact that the Jewish State is the only democratic or rights-protecting nation in the region. These figures have worsened markedly in the last four years, with young Democrats driving the trend.