Michigan Midterms Will Test Democrats’ Left Flank

Abdul El-Sayed, who won the Democratic nomination for Michigan’s Senate seat after having just a 20% chance of doing so earlier this year, is currently leading in the polls for the general election. If he wins by a similar margin to the Michigan Democratic gubernatorial nominee, it would significantly weaken the establishment Democratic case against the party’s left wing.

The latest poll in the race, from EPIC-MRA, surveyed 600 likely voters Aug. 22-28 and found El-Sayed leading Republican Mike Rogers by 4 points, 47%-43%. The other most recent poll, from Michigan State/YouGov, found El-Sayed leading Rogers by 5 points.

In the Michigan Senate RCP Average, El-Sayed leads by 2.3 points. Polymarket’s betting markets for the race give El-Sayed a 65% chance of winning. He is still a long way from being a solid favorite, but if polls continue to put him ahead, he will remain favored to win.

In Michigan’s gubernatorial race, Democratic Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson is running against Republican Rep. John James and holds a noticeably larger lead than El-Sayed. Benson led James by 9 points in the YouGov poll and by 4 points in the EPIC-MRA poll. In the current RCP Average, she leads by 6.8 points and has a 91% chance of winning, according to betting markets.

The 4.5 point discrepancy between the support for El-Sayed and Benson comes down to a few factors. The first is that both El-Sayed and James faced competitive primaries. This can negatively affect their performance in early polls, as some members of their parties who voted against them in the primary may not initially support them but might come around by Election Day.

Similarly, El-Sayed and James have not previously run statewide, while Rogers and Benson both have. That can give Rogers and Benson a relative advantage in early polls because of greater name recognition, but the effect could diminish or disappear by Election Day after months of campaigning and advertising raise the profiles of El-Sayed and James.

The other factor is El-Sayed’s ideology, which is perceived as more radical than Benson’s. One of El-Sayed’s top policy proposals is Medicare for All, under which he advocates for a national single-payer system. Benson, on the other hand, advocates for a more standard approach, advocating for drug-price oversight, expanded medical debt relief and greater health care cost transparency. While Benson has also criticized U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, saying it should be less violent and kept out of schools, she has not gone as far as El-Sayed, who supports abolishing ICE.

The first two factors suggest the races could look much closer by Election Day as Democrats unify behind El-Sayed and Republicans do the same behind James. If El-Sayed is polling similarly to Benson by Election Day and ultimately performs similarly to her, it would indicate that Democratic voters no longer have as much resistance to candidates from the party’s more radical wing.

If El-Sayed significantly underperforms Benson, winning only narrowly or even losing while she wins comfortably, it would be a major setback for the DSA-adjacent wing of the party. That would be especially notable in an election cycle that is otherwise likely to favor Democrats, given the national political environment and their current sizable lead in the Generic Congressional Vote. If El-Sayed’s politics fail to resonate even under those conditions in Michigan, one of the country’s most important swing states, candidates with similar views could face stronger headwinds in both Democratic primaries and general elections in 2028.