Latinos Not Sold on Trump, GOP in New Poll

President Trump is banking on his 2024 success in winning over more Latino voters to ensure Republican majorities in the midterms. But an NBC News/Telemundo poll released Sunday indicates Latino voters are pulling away from the president and the Republican Party.

The poll was conducted Sept. 21-28 and surveyed 800 registered Latino voters. Around 69% said they disapproved of Trump’s job performance, and 59% said they want Democrats to win in November. Around 35% said they want Republicans to retain control of Congress. Sixty-two percent of respondents had a negative view of the GOP, up from 46% in September 2024. The poll’s findings closely follow a September Cook Political Report poll that found Latino voters account for around 16% of the overall American electorate. While the bloc is diverse, it has been in play for both political parties in recent history. President Joe Biden won similar margins of Latino support compared to Obama in 2008 and 2012. In some counties, Latino voters chose Biden over Trump by a 3-to-1 margin, according to a UCLA study. But Vice President Kamala Harris lost the momentum. She claimed only 3% more of the Latino vote compared to Trump in 2024, a 13-point increase for the GOP. It was a record showing of Latino support for a Republican presidential candidate.

“I won all of the Hispanic cities,” Trump told a group of Latino supporters at the White House last week. The White House did not host a formal event for Hispanic Heritage Month in 2024, partly due to a government shutdown. Last week, Trump invited the crowd to the East Room and then to tour the White House ballroom construction site.

“You’re not supposed to generalize, but I do,” Trump added. “You’re hard-working people. You’re smart as hell. You’re energetic, sometimes too energetic… but you’re incredible people. And I loved you right from the beginning. I loved you for many years before I ever decided to do this political thing.”

Trump repeated his claims that South American countries opened mental institutions to send illegal immigrants across the United States border. He also touted his military operation in Venezuela to seize dictator Nicolas Maduro and the closure of the border. Trump made the pitch to continue the momentum this year.

“You’ve got to vote. You gotta vote… even if you don’t like somebody so much, it doesn’t matter. It’s a vote for good things. You know, it’s hard to explain that. But you may not love your congressperson, you said. But it’s a road like in Michigan. Are you going to vote for a guy who’s a communist? It’s ridiculous. And that vote counts just like another vote. And you get a couple of votes. And you’ll end up with open borders.”

But cracks are emerging even within the Latino coalition of the GOP. In September, Florida Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar, who has sponsored a controversial immigration bill to provide citizenship and legal status to undocumented immigrants, released a provocative ad directly calling out Trump on his immigration policies. She specifically warned that the White House’s deportation push has “gone too far.”

“Be careful what your advisers are telling you about immigration policy,” Salazar said in the ad. “The same Hispanics who helped you get to the White House in 2024 feel betrayed today.”

She later told CBS’s “Face the Nation” that she spoke privately with Trump after the ad aired and “I certainly hope he listened.”

Trump overperformed particularly with Latino men, winning that group by 10 percentage points in 2024. The NBC/Telemundo poll finds that Latino men largely support Democratic congressional control now, with a 53% to 39% ratio. Overall, one in seven Latino voters who cast a ballot for Trump in 2024 now have swung back to Democrats, according to the poll.

But Democratic gains are also not guaranteed. Latino views of the Democratic Party have declined sharply since 2016. Compared to 55% of Latino voters who viewed the party favorably in 2016, only 41% do the same now.