Kremlin Has Reason To Squirm at New Polls

For the first time in 20 years, a majority of Russian adults are expressing pessimism about their economy, according to recent polling from Gallup. A record 60% from March to May of this year said economic conditions are getting worse, up significantly from the last peak of 50% during the COVID-19 pandemic. A majority of Russian adults (56%) also said their living standards are getting worse, and 58% said it is a bad time to find a job.

Given that response rates in Russia are notoriously low, this polling indicates a shift in public satisfaction now more than four years into Russia’s war with Ukraine, and it’s sparking rare public rebuke of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

One Russian influencer, Victoria Bonya, published an 18-minute video criticizing Putin’s handling of the economy in April as well as a slow response to fatal flooding in one region, oil pollution in the Black Sea, and internet blackouts. Her remarks went viral, and since then, Putin’s job approval ratings have been declining. A state-run pollster found his approval rating fell to 65.6% in April. It rallied slightly in the following months but dipped again during the last week of June.

“You know what the risk is?” Bonya asked in her video. (Bonya currently lives in Monaco) “That people will stop being afraid, and they’re being squeezed into a coiled spring, and that one day that coiled spring will shoot out.”

For more than four years now, Russia has defied predictions of an imminent economic crash. After Bonya’s video went viral, the Kremlin publicly acknowledged her remarks and said that Putin is working on addressing them. Despite the war, Russia saw GDP growth between 2023 and 2024, and the Kremlin has been leveraging relationships with China and India to offset Western sanctions. And the U.S.’s war with Iran has provided more demand for Russian oil and thus, another lifeline for the economy.

But four years of what was supposed to be a weekend war is taking its toll, particularly on taxpayers and small businesses. The Kiel Institute for the World Economy released a report in June showing that the Russian economy is near a crisis point.

“In the first years of the war against Ukraine, Russia’s economy has proven more robust than many expected, but now the buffers are depleted,” Kiel Institute president Moritz Schularick wrote in the report. “The underlying foundations of the economy have weakened considerably. Fiscal reserves have been largely exhausted, growth has come to a standstill, and the country’s dependence on China is becoming ever more pronounced. At the same time, higher oil prices as a result of the war in the gulf will likely only bring temporary fiscal effects.”

Last year, the Kremlin hiked its value-added tax from 20% to 22%, breaking Putin’s earlier promise to not raise taxes before 2030. Military spending now accounts for 8% of the GDP, the highest level since the Cold War, but civilians are suffering. Small businesses across Russia are closing, and nearly every Russian region is suffering a fuel crisis as Ukraine uses drone attacks to strike critical infrastructure. Furthermore, Russians are demoralized. A recent report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies shows the Russian casualty rate has risen 8-to-1 during 2026 alone. Across the past four years, Russia has suffered an estimated 1.4 million casualties.

President Donald Trump called both Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Putin separately on Saturday, July 4. He is expected to hold a bilateral meeting with Zelensky this week at the NATO Summit, according to a schedule readout from the White House.

“I think he does feel pressure,” Trump told reporters Monday morning when asked about his call with Putin. “I think we’re getting much closer than people realize, and President Putin wants it to end – I will tell you that – very strongly… I had a very good call, and I think we’re getting close to getting it done.”