Israel, Iran War Skepticism Grows as Prices Squeeze Voters

Since the outbreak of war in Israel and Gaza following the October 7 attacks, skepticism of U.S. support for Israeli military action has grown significantly. The latest war with Iran has compounded that effect, with Americans increasingly skeptical of U.S. intervention in the region and even more critical of American foreign policy.

In the latest NBC exit poll from the midterms, 51% said U.S. support for Israel was too strong. Of that 51%, 79% were Democrats.

Among younger generations, skepticism was even stronger, with 77% of voters ages 18-29 saying U.S. support was too strong, and 68% of those ages 18-44 saying the same. Voters ages 65 and older were the only age demographic listed who were more likely to say support was about right (46%) or not strong enough (14%) than too strong (40%).

The Iran war was a critical factor in many voters’ decisions in their congressional races, according to the poll. For 74%, it was a crucial or major factor, while 26% said it was a minor factor or not a factor at all. Democrats were more likely to say the war was a major factor, making up 64% of those who said so. Only 37% of those polled said taking military action against Iran was the right decision, however, while 63% said it was the wrong decision, 83% of whom were Democrats.

Despite the skepticism of the Iran war, it alone didn’t register as a top issue for voters. Another Harvard-Harris poll, conducted shortly before the midterms among 2,700 registered voters, found that when asked which issue was most important to them personally, 51% said inflation/affordability were their top concerns. The Iran war trailed significantly, at just 3%.

In the NBC exit polls, 21% said inflation had been a severe hardship for them and their families over the past year, 58% said it had been a moderate hardship, and only 21% said it hadn’t been a hardship at all. In the latest year-over-year figure from September, inflation rose by 3.7%, according to the Consumer Price Index. In October, it rose by 0.4% month over month, according to the CPI, which would equate to an annualized inflation rate of approximately 4.9% if that monthly pace continued for a year. Both figures indicate that inflation remains well above the Federal Reserve’s target inflation rate of 2%.

The gas price hikes don’t just hurt Americans at the gas pump; they increase costs throughout the economy. The direct downstream effects include higher transportation costs, which factor into the prices of almost all goods. Higher inflation could also cause the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates again. These downstream effects mean the gas price hikes have reduced the affordability of goods across much of the economy, contributing significantly to the large Democratic victory in the midterms and Trump’s −32.4 net approval rating on the economy.

General economic anxiety isn’t the only reason Americans’ skepticism of U.S. involvement in the Middle East is growing. Another poll from YouGov, conducted Oct. 6 before the election, found that 41% said Israel was committing genocide against Palestinians, while only 27% said it was not and 32% weren’t sure.

Some polling indicates that a small but notable subset of Americans are becoming significantly more radical in their views on Israel. When asked in the Harvard-Harris poll whether a politician calling for the “complete destruction of Israel” rather than a two-state solution would affect their vote, a majority said it would make them less likely to support that politician. Yet 22% said it would make them more likely to vote for that politician, while 26% said it would have no effect on their vote.

In another YouGov poll conducted Oct. 7, 25% said they had more sympathy for the Palestinians in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, while 27% said they had more sympathy for the Israelis. Harvard-Harris found more support for Israel, with 71% saying they supported Israel over Hamas in the Israel-Hamas conflict, while 29% said they supported Hamas more.