Is Trump Losing Hispanics Because of Deportations?

A new study by Pew Research shows a majority (53%) now say the Trump administration is doing “too much” to deport immigrants in the U.S. illegally. That’s up 9 points since March.

That number is driven mostly by an increase among Democrats: 89% say the administration is doing “too much,” up 11 percentage points since March. Only 20% of Republicans say the same, up 7 points over the same period.

However, the rise in the number of Hispanic Republicans who say the administration is doing “too much” is more dramatic: from 28% in March to 47% today. More than one in three Hispanic Republicans say they worry “a lot” or “some” that they, a family member, or a close friend could be deported.

Despite heightened concerns about deportations among Hispanics, immigration remains relatively low on the list when voters – including Hispanics – are asked about the issues that matter most to them. On this question, there remains a solid consensus across all demographic groups: It’s the inflation, stupid.

According to a recent Economist/YouGov survey, 25% of voters say “inflation/prices” are their top issue, followed by 14% who said “jobs and the economy.” Immigration was listed as the top issue among just 9% of voters. When looking specifically at Hispanics, the numbers are nearly identical: 26% said “inflation/prices”, 13% said “jobs and the economy,” and just 6% cited immigration as their top concern.

When it comes to President Trump’s approval rating on handling economic issues, Hispanics are just as sour as the rest of the electorate. The most recent Economist/YouGov poll, conducted in December, shows Trump’s overall approval rating among all voters at 41%. On the issue of inflation, it sinks 8 points to just 33%. Among Hispanics, Trump’s overall approval rating is 39%, and on the inflation issue, it drops to 29%.

In 2024, Trump won 46% of the Hispanic vote, a high-water mark for a Republican presidential candidate. That was a 13 percentage-point increase from his 2020 showing among Hispanics, driven primarily by his advantage over Kamala Harris in handling the most important issue in that election: the economy.

The bad news for Trump is that he has lost ground with Hispanics – as well as all other voters - over his handling of inflation and the economy, not because of his immigration policies. The good news for Trump and the Republicans is that they should be able to recapture Hispanic support – but it will only happen if or when inflation decreases and the economy improves.