Is Iowa Back in Play as a Swing State?

The midterms are already looking grim for Republicans, who are very likely to lose the House and increasingly likely to lose the Senate, despite the Senate map being expected to be favorable to the party. Adding to the list of red-leaning states in contention, the latest Iowa poll indicates that the race to replace Republican Sen. Joni Ernst is likely to be very competitive.

The poll, conducted by Echelon Insights and NetChoice, found that Democrats hold leads in November Senate and gubernatorial matchups in a state that President Donald Trump won by 13 points in 2024. Among the 377 Iowa likely voters, 44% said they would support Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson, while 46% said they would support Iowa state Sen. Zach Wahls in a head-to-head matchup. Against Iowa state Rep. Joshua Turek, Hinson trailed Turek 45%-46%. This is a departure from previous polls from March and January, including those conducted or sponsored by Democratic polling firms, which showed Hinson leading.

Betting markets also point to a competitive race, with Hinson still holding a 59% chance of winning.

In Democratic primary polling, Wahls leads. Most recently, a Bedrock poll of 1,022 likely voters found him ahead by 18 points.

Iowa will also hold a gubernatorial election in November, where early polling shows even larger Democratic leads. The Echelon Insights poll found Republican U.S. Rep. Randy Feenstra trailing with 39% to Iowa Auditor Rob Sand, who polled at 51%.

This marks a significant shift for Iowa, which was once a swing state but has consistently voted Republican since 2016, when Trump won the state by 9.4 points. Even in 2018 and 2020, when Democrats performed well nationally, Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds won by 3 points in 2018, and Trump carried the state by 8.2 points in 2020.

With Iowa now appearing more competitive, it adds another battleground to an already fluid 2026 Senate map. Democrats are currently favored to win all key swing-state Senate races, though only North Carolina and blue-leaning Maine have Republican incumbents.

As a result, Democrats would need to flip at least two additional seats in red-leaning states to gain a majority. The closest races at this stage appear to be in Ohio, Texas, Alaska, and now Iowa. In both Alaska and Ohio, betting markets show Democratic candidates favored at around a 60% chance to win, while in Texas, similar to Iowa, Republicans are favored at 57%.

With these races remaining highly competitive, the Senate outlook is close to evenly split, with Republicans holding a slight edge, at 52%, to retain control with at least 50 seats.