Iran War, Gas Prices, Inflation Tanking GOP Midterm Chances

Heading into the 2024 election, inflation was the top issue for Americans, and Donald Trump won in part because he was seen as better equipped to handle the issue than Kamala Harris. However, after months of rising inflation driven by gas price spikes, support for Republicans is falling sharply, jeopardizing their chances in the midterms.

In March, following the start of Operation Epic Fury on Feb. 28, the Consumer Price Index rose to 3.3%, the highest level since the start of 2024. In the latest April CPI report, it was measured rising to 3.8% year over year, the highest inflation rate since May 2023. While still far from the peak of 9.1% in June 2022, inflation will continue to rise if gas prices remain elevated.

This has brought Trump’s approval rating down to -17 in the latest RCP Average, only slightly above his previous term low of -17.2 on April 24. On inflation, he’s doing even worse, at -38.1 net approval.

This has bled over into views of Republicans more generally. In the 2026 Generic Congressional Ballot, Democrats lead by 7.2 points, the largest lead they’ve had this term.

At the time of the 2018 midterm elections, Democrats led in Generic Ballot polling by 7.3 points, and went on to win a majority in the House with an 8.4-point General Congressional Ballot win. In that election, Democrats won 41 seats, jumping from 194 seats to 235. In 2026, even with the recent redistricting, Democrats will likely only need to win 15 seats.

The latest decline in Trump and Republican approval also stems from continued declining approval of the military action against Iran. In the latest RCP Average on Operation Epic Fury, it has -17.3 net approval, the lowest approval of the conflict since it began.

This strong Democratic advantage also puts the Senate in play. States like North Carolina and Georgia, which were swing states in 2024, are very likely to go the Democrats’ way. The latest poll in North Carolina from Carolina Forward found that Roy Cooper led by 7 points, similar to his RCP Average lead of 6.8 points. Betting markets give Jon Ossoff an 83% chance to win re-election to his Georgia seat.

Even states like Texas are toss-ups. In the latest poll from Texas State University, Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico was tied with Republican candidate Ken Paxton and only trailed Republican John Cornyn by 1 point.

To win back a majority in the Senate, in addition to winning the swing states with Senate elections, including Michigan, Georgia, and North Carolina, as well as Maine, where Republican Sen. Susan Collins is up for re-election, Democrats need to win an additional two seats from traditionally Republican-leaning states such as Texas, Iowa, Alaska, and Ohio. Despite this unfavorable map, given the large lead, Democrats are currently predicted to win the midterms, and betting markets give them a 45% chance of winning a majority in the Senate.

This Democratic lead isn’t guaranteed to last until November, however. In 2018, Democrats led by 12.5 points in the RCP Average at the beginning of the year, but by June, they led by only 3.2 points. This is to say that while the Generic Congressional Ballot has consistently trended toward Democrats since the end of 2025, that trend could still reverse, especially if gas prices and inflation decline or the conflict in Iran ends.