Iran War Currently Unpopular But Approval Hinges on Results

Over the weekend, the United States launched coordinated strikes with Israel targeting senior Iranian officials, military sites, and nuclear facilities. Polls conducted after the initial strikes found the move to be unpopular, but that it could gain support if objectives are achieved with minimal casualties.

The latest poll from Reuters, conducted Feb. 28-March 1 after the initial strikes began, found that 27% approve of the “U.S. military strikes against Iran,” while 43% disapprove. Much of the dissatisfaction came from Democrats, 74% of whom disapproved of the move, while 55% of Republicans supported it.

Previous strikes over the summer saw majority opposition before they were carried out, but later gained approval after they didn’t lead to a prolonged conflict. In an Economist/YouGov poll conducted June 13-16, 2025, a few days before Operation Midnight Hammer on June 21, when the United States struck multiple nuclear facilities, 16% said they supported U.S. involvement in the Israel-Iran conflict, while 60% were opposed. In a Reagan National Defense Survey conducted Oct. 23-Nov. 3, 60% approved of the airstrikes against nuclear facilities, while 36% disapproved.

The Reuters poll indicates that if casualties are minimal and the United States achieves its objectives, a similar increase in approval could occur. If the strikes led to a more U.S.-friendly government in Iran, 47% said they would be more likely to support the military action. If the strikes ended Iran’s nuclear program or prevented Russia from purchasing Iranian-made weapons for its war effort, 49% and 46%, respectively, said they would be more likely to support the action.

However, approval could fall further if the conflict drags on. Fifty-four percent said they would be more likely to oppose U.S. action in Iran if American troops were killed or injured. According to U.S. Central Command, as of the morning of March 2, four service members had been killed, and three F-15 fighter jets were shot down over Kuwait in a friendly fire incident, though all pilots ejected safely.

Oil prices are also a major concern, with 45% saying they would be more likely to oppose the effort if oil prices rise in the United States. Inflation remains the top concern for Americans, and Trump’s approval on the issue stands at -26.

The last time inflation reached 9% was in the summer of 2022, shortly after the start of the Russia-Ukraine war, which spiked oil prices. At the time, President Biden’s approval fell to a term low of -20.7. If the conflict with Iran is not resolved quickly, with favorable political outcomes in Tehran, minimal casualties, and stable oil prices, Trump’s approval is likely to decline similarly.