Governor Races To Watch

While both political parties grapple for congressional control, gubernatorial elections in several states could also indicate a turning tide in November. As of now, there are 26 Republican governors and 24 Democratic ones in the United States. Overall, RealClearPolitics rates 23 governor races as leaning Democratic, 19 leaning Republican, and eight toss-ups. This week, the polls indicate close races and potential flips in key states.

Ohio: Republican candidate and former presidential hopeful Vivek Ramaswamy trails Democrat Amy Acton in two polls released this week. Marist University found Acton leading by 6 points, while the Suffolk poll found her 9 points ahead. Only Big Data Poll found Ramaswamy leading by one percentage point, within the margin of error.

Acton is the former director of the Ohio Department of Health and chief health advisor to Gov. Mike Dewine. She managed the state’s early COVID-19 response before resigning from the governor’s administration in August 2020. Ramaswamy has built his campaign around opposition to her public health policies, along with his pledges to cut statewide taxes and improve fiscal audits.

The Buckeye State has shifted in recent elections from a swing state to solidly Republican. Former President Barack Obama won the state in both 2008 and 2012, but Trump carried it in all three presidential elections since 2016. His largest margin of victory was 11 points in 2024.

Wisconsin: As of this week, RCP now rates the Wisconsin gubernatorial race a toss-up, moving it from “Leans Dem” column. A Marquette University Law School poll released Wednesday found Democrat David Crowley and Republican Tom Tiffany are within one point of each other among registered voters, with Crowley slightly in the lead. Among likely voters, Crowley’s lead expanded 49% to 46%, with 5% undecided. According to the RCP Average, Crowley is favored by 3.5 points. Gov. Tony Evers, who is term limited, won in 2022 with a 3.3-point margin.

Oregon: Oregon has not been considered a toss-up in most polling analysis, but a new Oregon Public Broadcasting poll finds the race deadlocked between incumbent Democratic Gov. Tina Kotek and Republican state Sen. Christine Drazan. The poll, which is the largest sampling within Oregon thus far in the cycle, found 46% of voters support Drazen and 44% support Kotek. Another 8% are undecided, and 3% opted for third-party candidate Brett Smith.

Although Kotek has campaigned by trying to tie her opponent to President Donald Trump, her own approval rating has suffered in the state. According to the OPB poll, 58% of respondents said the state is on the wrong track. Trump’s own disapproval rating in the state is only one point lower than Kotek’s. Nevertheless, undecided voters are likely to determine whether the governor’s mansion will flip. Drazan previously ran against Kotek in 2022 and lost by nearly 3.5 points. In that race, 8.6% of voters cast a ballot for a third-party candidate.

What the White House is watching: This week, both the president and Vice President JD Vance stumped for gubernatorial candidates in narrowing races in Texas and Florida. On Thursday, Vance urged voters to support Republican U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds, who is 6 points ahead of former U.S. Rep. David Jolly in the RCP Average.

“Florida is facing one of the easiest choices I have ever seen in politics in my entire life,” Vance told a rally crowd in Lakeland, Fla., “On the one hand you’ve got [Sen.] Ashley Moody and Byron Donalds and the rest of our Republican ticket who are fighting to keep this state free. And on the other hand, you have far left socialists along with a few washed-up losers like Jolly.”

Meanwhile, Trump flew to Texas to push for both Senate candidate Ken Paxton and incumbent Gov. Greg Abbott. The RCP Average has Abbott at 2.3% leading Democratic candidate Gina Hinojosa. It’s a worrying sign for the Republican party given that Abbott won by double digits in 2018 and 2022.