Florida Republicans Head Into Primaries With Commanding Leads

Florida was once the ultimate swing state, deciding presidential elections by razor-thin margins and drawing enormous attention from both parties, but that era appears to be over. With Florida voters heading to the polls for Tuesday’s primaries, Republicans are heavily favored in both of the state’s most important statewide races.

For Tuesday’s Democratic Senate primary, Alexander Vindman is the overwhelming favorite over state Rep. Angie Nixon. Vindman, who served as director for European affairs on the National Security Council from 2018 to 2020, testified during Trump’s first impeachment proceedings about his concerns regarding a phone call between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. He has a 94% chance of winning the primary in betting markets and led Nixon by 10 points in a July Change Research (D) poll.

The winner will face Republican Sen. Ashley Moody, Florida’s former attorney general, who was appointed in 2025 to fill the Senate seat vacated by Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Against both Vindman and Nixon, Moody holds a lead of more than 8 points in the RCP Average. In the general election, Polymarket gives Moody an 87% chance of winning.

Florida’s gubernatorial primaries are also all but settled. Rep. Byron Donalds has led Lt. Gov. Jay Collins and investment firm CEO James Fishback by at least 31 points in every recent poll included in the RCP Average.

Fishback entered the race last year promising to continue Gov. Ron DeSantis’ approach to governing while attacking Donalds from the right on issues such as immigration and affordability. His more radical politics and knack for drawing attention online have earned him comparisons to a conservative version of Mayor Zohran Mamdani, though the primary results are unlikely to resemble Mamdani’s electoral success. While Fishback had about a 10% chance of winning at the start of the year in betting markets, Donalds now has a 99% chance of securing the nomination.

In the general election, Donalds will face former U.S. Rep. David Jolly, whose path to the Democratic nomination became much easier after his main primary opponent, Jerry Demings, dropped out in early June. Jolly leads the other opponents by 31-43 points in the latest polls.

In the general election, similar to the Senate race, Donalds has an overwhelming advantage. He currently has an 83% chance of beating Jolly and leads him by 5 points in the latest University of North Florida poll.

Florida was once one of the country’s most important swing states, but the rise of Trump and Ron DeSantis has helped turn it solidly Republican.

Other former battlegrounds that have moved to the right have not shifted nearly as far. Ohio and Iowa, for example, were still considered swing states as recently as 2016 but are now Republican-leaning. Even so, betting markets give Democratic Senate candidates in both states more than a 40% chance of winning, despite Trump carrying Ohio by 11.2 points and Iowa by 13.2 points in 2024. The RCP Polling Averages also show both races within 1 point.