Early 2028 Polls Put Republicans on the Back Foot

If candidates begin announcing their campaigns as early as President Donald Trump did in 2022, we’re a mere three months away from presidential hopefuls entering the race. Based on history, the latest polling numbers and betting markets, Republicans are going to be battling from behind.

The two parties are already developing very different primary contests. On the Republican side, Vance and Rubio are well ahead of the rest of the potential field. Vance leads the RealClearPolitics Polling Average with 40.4%, followed by Rubio at 22.6%, Donald Trump Jr. at 11.7% and Ron DeSantis at 7.3%. Betting markets also point to a race centered on the two front-runners, with Polymarket giving Vance a 47% chance of winning the nomination and Rubio a 22% chance.

The Democratic race is much less settled, with polling and betting markets disagreeing over who should be considered the early front-runner. Harris leads the RCP Average with 27.6%, followed by Newsom at 16.4%, Buttigieg at 11.6% and Ocasio-Cortez at 9.4%. Polymarket, however, makes Ocasio-Cortez the favorite at 18%, followed by Newsom at 15%, Ossoff at 14% and Harris at just 7%.

The latest Emerson poll, taken August 16-17 with 1,000 likely voters, offers an early look at how some of the leading contenders could fare in a general election. The poll tested a series of potential matchups between Vance and Rubio and several Democratic candidates.

Vance and Rubio performed best against Ocasio-Cortez, leading her by 2 and 5 points, respectively. Rubio also led Harris by 5 points, while Vance trailed her by 4. Both Republicans trailed Buttigieg by 5 points. Against Ossoff, Vance trailed by 5 points and Rubio by 3, while against Newsom, Vance was down 5 and Rubio by 2.

Republicans’ struggles against the majority of Democratic candidates in the poll generally fall in line with betting markets’ current view of the race. In Polymarket’s market. On which party will win the 2028 presidential election, Polymarket gives Democrats a 59% chance of winning. After President Joe Biden’s disastrous debate performance and the Butler attempt on Trump’s life (but before Harris entered the race), Trump had a 66% chance of winning the 2024 presidential election, just a few points higher than Democrats’ odds are now, more than two years out.

A significant reason for this drag is the perception of the economy. The top issue, according to the Emerson poll, was the economy, with 37% rating it their top issue, followed by threats to democracy and health care at 16% each and immigration at 13%. The problem for Republicans at this point is that the president’s net approval rating on the economy is -24.7, and because both leading Republican candidates are tied to the administration, the economy could weigh heavily on them unless perceptions improve.

Running to replace a president from your own party is a tall order whenever it happens. Since Herbert Hoover, only once has a non-incumbent candidate from the incumbent president’s party won a presidential election: George H.W. Bush, who succeeded Ronald Reagan when Reagan had around 60% approval at the end of his term.

However, even high approval isn’t enough to get a member of your party elected. In November 2000, Bill Clinton had 57% approval, according to Gallup polling, yet his vice president, Al Gore, wasn’t able to make it across the finish line. Similarly, Dwight Eisenhower had around 59% approval in November 1960, yet his vice president, Richard Nixon, lost to John F. Kennedy.

All these factors put Vance and Rubio in a difficult position heading into 2028, though one that is obviously far from insurmountable. Against betting markets’ Democratic frontrunner, Ocasio-Cortez, they both lead in this early Emerson poll. However, if Democrats nominate someone viewed as more moderate, such as Ossoff or Buttigieg, Republicans could face an uphill battle trying to distance themselves from the perceived failures of the administration while still benefiting from its successes.