Do Normal Americans Support Trump’s Latest Tariffs?

Last Wednesday, which the Trump administration dubbed “Liberation Day,” Trump announced a sweeping set of tariffs on most countries, measures even more aggressive than those proposed by some of the harshest critics of free trade. Since the announcement, public commentary has been dominated by speculation about the tariffs’ impact and debate over their merits, making it difficult to gauge the actual approval of the tariffs by the public. However, recent polls suggest that while Americans remain divided on tariffs in general, those targeting China are more widely supported.

In the latest poll that took place before and after the tariffs were put into place from March 31 to April 2 by the Daily Mail and J.L. Partners, 36% said they supported a base 10% minimum tariff, while 28% opposed the policy and 36% were unsure. In another poll from The Wall Street Journal, however, only 42% were in favor of, while 54% opposed “President Trump's plan to place tariffs on goods that are imported from other countries,” though this poll was taken before the official tariffs announcement on April 2. In January, the response to the same question showed net approval, at 48% favorable and 46% opposed.

Trump’s tariff announcements included the base 10% tariffs on all countries and greater tariffs on countries where the United States has a larger trade deficit, such as China, where the tariff announced by Trump was 34%. In a poll from the Economist during the previous trade debate in early March, tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and the EU had negative net approval, while tariffs on China were generally popular, with 48% supporting a 10% tariff on all goods from China.

Part of the concern about tariffs is the potential for trade wars, as countries place tariffs on the United States in response to the U.S. tariffs on them. After Trump announced these measures, China responded in kind, announcing a 34% tariff on American goods. In the next round, Trump countered, writing on Truth Social that he will institute an additional 50% tariff on China if they do not remove the new tariff, effective April 9. These concerns about the economy of tariffs and trade wars are also seen in the Wall Street Journal poll, where 54% said the tariffs would have a mostly negative impact on the economy, compared to 40% who said they would be positive.

The immediate response to the tariffs in the stock market has been very negative, with the S&P seeing some of the most significant drops since the announcements of lockdowns for the COVID-19 pandemic. Since the announcement, the S&P 500 has fallen 9.6%, and it has fallen 11.4% since just before Election Day.

However, using the stock market isn’t the best metric for gauging public support for a policy. In a March 16–18 Economist poll, when asked which measure best reflects how the economy is going, only 7% said a stock market index, while 54% said prices of goods and services, and 14% said the unemployment rate and jobs reports. Democrats and Republicans answered similarly to the question.

The total effect of the tariffs on the job market and inflation remains to be seen. Before the tariffs, the Federal Reserve’s predictions had inflation ticking up only slightly in response to potential tariffs; however, the announced tariffs were significantly higher than expected.

In a statement Friday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that the effects of higher tariffs will be “higher inflation and slower growth” than predicted before the announcements. He stressed that he wants to prevent an inflation spike like the one under the Biden administration, which may require keeping interest rates higher than earlier estimates – likely dampening inflation but harming the stock and job markets.