Dems Have Significant Advantage in 2028 Presidential Race

In a recent interview, Peter Thiel, who was the largest financial backer of JD Vance’s 2022 Senate campaign and has known Vance since before his days in politics, said he worries it will be “very hard” for either Marco Rubio or Vance to win in 2028. These concerns aren’t unfounded. Betting markets and history both point to a significant Democratic advantage, even two years out from the election.

On Polymarket, Democrats have a 65% chance of winning the 2028 presidential election. For context, in the summer of 2024, when support for President Donald Trump was at its peak, Trump peaked at a 66.2% chance to win in betting markets. That came during the week of the Republican National Convention, days after he had been shot at a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, and before President Joe Biden dropped out of the race.

After Kamala Harris entered the race, neither Trump nor Harris ever had a greater than 64% chance of winning, meaning Democrats’ current advantage, over two years out from the general, going into 2028 is higher than either Harris or Trump ever had in their matchup.

This advantage for the party out of power lines up with historical precedent. When a president isn’t on the ballot, his party almost always loses the White House. Before 1988, the last time a non-incumbent from the president’s party won was 1928, when Republican Herbert Hoover succeeded fellow Republican Calvin Coolidge.

In other words, George H.W. Bush is the only exception in nearly a century. He won the presidency in 1988 after Ronald Reagan’s two terms, making him the lone case since Hoover of a party keeping the White House without its incumbent running.

Bush also had a tailwind that Republicans likely won’t have in 2028: a popular outgoing president. In a Gallup poll taken Nov. 11-14, 1988, days after Bush won, Reagan’s approval stood at 57%. Trump’s is currently 38.8%. Approval ratings can shift, but it would take a major turn of events for Trump to even approach 50% by the end of his term.

A major factor in why Democrats have expanded their lead in betting markets was the Iran war. From August 2025 through March 1, 2026, Democrats’ chances of winning the 2028 election remained bounded between 53% and 55%. Since the Iran war started on Feb. 28, their chances have increased from 55% to 65%.

The economy will also be a significant, if not the most significant, factor going into 2028. In the latest Economist/YouGov poll, 31% said inflation and prices were the most important issue, and 15% said jobs and the economy were the most important issue. No other individual issue had more than 10% saying it was the most significant.

Inflation currently stands at 3.4%, as measured by the Consumer Price Index. While not as high as during the inflation surge of 2022-2023, it’s still elevated relative to the Federal Reserve’s target rate of 2%. If the Iran conflict ends and gas prices come down, bringing inflation down with them, Republicans’ chances could improve.

Despite Democrats leading as a party, Vance is still the most likely individual to win the 2028 presidential election because of the uncertainty over whom Democrats will pick in their primary. Vance leads with a 21% chance to win the presidency, followed by Democrats Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 13% and Sen. Jon Ossoff at 11%, and then Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 9%. California Gov. Gavin Newsom is the only other candidate with above a 5% chance to win, at 8%, and a slew of candidates have between a 2% and 4% chance to win.

Betting markets, of course, aren’t Nostradamus, but they do indicate that the momentum is on the side of Democrats. Republicans will need some significant wins to turn the ship around and have a real shot in 2028.