Democrats Eye First Governors’ Majority Since 2010

States like Kansas and Iowa have already made this year’s Senate map unusual, with Republicans defending toss-up seats in two states Donald Trump won comfortably. But the governors’ races are even stranger, with RCP’s 2026 Gubernatorial Map listing deep-blue Oregon and reliably red Florida as tossups, while in Iowa, which Trump carried by 13 points in 2024, both polling and betting markets favor a Democrat to win.

RCP rates eight of the 36 governorships on the ballot in this year’s midterms as toss-ups: Florida, Georgia, Kansas, Nevada, Ohio, Oregon, Texas, and Wisconsin. Here’s a look at which candidates currently hold the advantage in each race.

Democrats’ pickup opportunities

Polymarket bettors expect Democrats to flip five governorships now held by Republicans. One of those is Iowa, where State Auditor Rob Sand, a Democrat, is ahead of Republican Zach Lahn by 6.7 points in the RCP Average, and betting markets give him an 89% chance of winning. There’s a significant chance of a split ticket therefore, as in Iowa’s Senate contest, Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson holds a lead of less than half a point over Democrat Josh Turek and is a 59% favorite on Polymarket.

In Alaska, Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, a former state legislator, leads Republican Bernadette Wilson by 7.5 points head-to-head, and bettors give him an 88% chance in the state’s ranked-choice election. Ohio Democrat Amy Acton, the state’s former health director, has an 83% chance of winning in betting markets against former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy, whom she leads by 3.6 points. When polls include Libertarian Don Kissick, Acton’s lead is 3.4 points.

Nevada and Georgia are much tighter. Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo and Democrat Aaron Ford are tied at 42% in Nevada, though the RCP Average for the race only includes two polls, and none conducted since Sept. 26. Polymarket’s betting markets lean toward Ford, giving him a 64% chance. Georgia is the only state where the polling leader and the betting favorite differ: Republican Rick Jackson, a health care executive, leads former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms by 1.5 points, but Polymarket gives Bottoms a 63% chance to succeed term-limited Republican Gov. Brian Kemp.

Republicans’ lone flip

Kansas offers Republicans their best chance at a pickup. Current Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly is term-limited, and Republican state Sen. Ty Masterson leads Democratic state Sen. Cindy Holscher by 5.7 points. Polymarket gives Masterson a 76% chance of winning.

Toss-ups likely to stay same

In the other four toss-ups, betting markets expect the party in power to keep the seat. In Texas, Gov. Greg Abbott, who is seeking a fourth term, leads Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa by only 2.3 points. His lead grows to 3.4 points when polls include Libertarian Pat Dixon, and bettors give Abbott a 67% chance of winning.

In Florida, Republican Byron Donalds leads Democrat David Jolly by 5.6 points in the RCP Average, with betting markets giving him an 81% chance of winning. In Wisconsin, Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, a Democrat, leads Republican Rep. Tom Tiffany by 3.5 points, with bettors also giving him an 81% chance of winning, though none of the polls in the average were conducted after Sept. 23.

RCP moved Oregon to a toss-up after its two most recent polls split, one with Gov. Tina Kotek ahead by 2 points and the other with Republican Christine Drazan ahead by 2. The betting market has far more confidence in Kotek than the polls do, giving her an 83% chance, tied with Ohio for the most lopsided odds of the toss-ups.

The rest of the map

Outside the toss-ups, Democrats hold comfortable leads in several other states, including Michigan, where Jocelyn Benson leads Republican John James by 5.8 points, and Arizona, where Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs leads Republican Andy Biggs by 11.4 points. Democrats also hold sizable leads in Minnesota and Maine, despite much closer Senate races in both states, with Democratic Sen. Amy Klobuchar ahead by 8.4 points in Minnesota and Democrat Hannah Pingree leading by 11.4 points in Maine.

Some of Republicans’ strongest opportunities to retain governorships are in the otherwise Democratic-leaning states of New England, where two Republican incumbents are favored to win reelection. In New Hampshire, Gov. Kelly Ayotte leads by 9 points in the polls and has a 94% chance of winning on Polymarket, and in Vermont, bettors give Gov. Phil Scott a 76% chance of keeping his seat against Democrat Amanda Janoo.

Taken together, Polymarket projects Democrats to win 28 governorships to Republicans’ 22, a net gain of four. Republicans hold a 26-24 edge today, so unless the election goes extremely poorly for Democrats in November, Democrats are favored to hold a majority of the nation’s governorships for the first time since 2010.