D-Day in Wisconsin

The latest battle in the Democratic establishment’s ongoing war with the surging socialist faction within the party takes place today in Wisconsin. The Democratic gubernatorial primary pits DSA candidate Francesca Hong against Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley.

Crowley exited the primary earlier this year after attracting little support. But after the recent implosion of former Lt. Gov Mandela Barnes, Crowley re-entered the race in mid-July along with an endorsement from outgoing Democratic Gov. Tony Evers.

The 11th-hour maneuvering by the establishment does not seem to have dented Hong’s momentum, however. She leads in every poll taken in the month of July by double digits. As primary day dawns in the Badger State, the best the Democratic establishment can hope for is that the polls are as badly off as they were in Michigan last week, where Abdul El-Sayed led by more than 10 points in pre-election polling but managed to eke out a victory by just a single point.

About 1,000 miles to the east, Republicans have their own intraparty battle today in the South Carolina special Senate primary to replace the recently deceased Lindsey Graham. Darlene Graham, Lindsey’s sister, has been appointed to the seat and has President Trump’s backing. She currently leads the five-way race by 6 points in our RCP Average, though two of the six polls that have been taken in the last month show Rep. Ralph Norman with a slight edge.

Even if Graham prevails tonight, she is unlikely to reach the 50-percent-plus-one mark needed to avoid a runoff. That contest will feature the two highest vote-getters from today’s primary and will take place in just two weeks.