Court Rulings Aid GOP, but Dems Still Favored To Win House

With the combination of redistricting efforts in both red and blue states, the Supreme Court ruling on the Voting Rights Act, and the latest Virginia Supreme Court decision striking down Virginia’s Democrat-drawn congressional maps, new maps have been drawn that give Republicans a significant number of safe House districts. However, if Democrats’ large lead in the Generic Congressional Ballot holds until November, Republicans are still in trouble.

The initial redistricting tit-for-tat at first appeared likely to have only a small net effect, with Democrats picking up approximately nine seats in California, Utah (due to a state court ruling), and Virginia, while Republicans picked up a similar number in Texas, Ohio, North Carolina, and Missouri.

However, after Virginia’s Supreme Court struck down the new maps, Republicans regained four of those seats. In addition, redistricting in Florida and Tennessee as a result of the Supreme Court’s Louisiana v. Callais ruling gave Republicans another five seats, though a few of those remain competitive in Florida, where three of the four new districts have a Republican lean of +9 or +10 and could still be within striking distance for Democrats. If Louisiana, South Carolina, and/or Alabama also redistrict before the midterms, Republicans could gain another one to three seats. This brings the tally of newly drawn Republican districts to between six and 12, most likely ending up around nine.

Before these changes, Democrats needed to win back only three seats to gain a majority. With these additions, they need to pick up 10-15 seats to squeak by, and around 20 to have a solid majority.

That task would be far more difficult without a strong Democratic lead heading into November. But Democrats currently have one: They lead by 5.6 points in the Generic Congressional Ballot in the RCP Average, an 8.2-point swing from the 2024 result, when Republicans won by 2.7 points.

In 2024, Republicans won 20 House races by less than 8.3 points. While individual races can vary widely from the generic ballot, that suggests Democrats would be in a position to take back the House if their current 8.3-point national swing takes effect in those districts.

Recent elections also suggest that a 20-seat midterm swing is possible, though not guaranteed. In 2022, with a 5.8-point swing from the 2020 national congressional ballot, Republicans picked up 9 seats. In 2018, with a 9.5-point swing in Democrats’ direction from 2016, Democrats were able to pick up 41 seats.

These factors suggest Democrats could be in trouble if they fail to maintain their lead in the Generic Congressional Ballot. One major variable is whether Trump continues the war with Iran, which has so far been unpopular, especially as oil prices rise.

In a similar situation in 2022, despite inflation reaching 9% in July, the Generic Congressional Ballot had Republicans and Democrats effectively tied as late as early October. Only in the final month did polls move toward Republicans, and then they ended up winning by 2.8 points.

That example indicates that there’s room for significant improvement for Republicans if the war ends and inflation and gas prices cool. Betting markets reflect that possibility; in late April, before the U.S. and Virginia Supreme Court decisions, Democrats had an 86% chance to win the House, compared with 76% now. Markets also give Democrats a 53% chance of winning at least 225 seats, which would amount to a majority of at least 15 seats and a gain of 10 or more from their current 215. This still leaves a 24% that Republicans improve enough before the midterms to narrowly keep the House.

Taken together, this means that if the Supreme Court had gone the other way on the VRA and Virginia hadn’t overturned the ruling, it would be nearly impossible for Republicans to keep the House, since Democrats would only need to win by a very small margin. With these rulings in place, though, Democrats will still need a strong performance to win, but their current trajectory suggests they are on pace to do so.