Cornyn Trails Paxton in Early 2026 Texas Senate Primary Polls

While the vast majority of sitting senators are removed only through resignation or by losing a general election challenge, in Texas, Sen. John Cornyn is facing a significant contest in the Republican primary from Attorney General Ken Paxton. Based on current polling, Paxton is leading in his challenge, though Cornyn has ample opportunity to turn the race around.

The latest poll, conducted Aug. 25-27 by Co/efficient with 818 likely Republican primary voters, found that in a head-to-head matchup, Paxton led Cornyn 39% to 36%. This still left 26% undecided, which is more than enough margin for Cornyn to win the primary on March 3 if he can make his case to those voters.

Paxton’s biggest leads came with “Trump” Republicans (other categories included in the poll were “Fiscal,” “Christian,” and “Traditional” Republicans). Among Trump Republicans, 52% supported Paxton, while only 27% supported Cornyn. Fiscal Republicans and Traditional Republicans, on the other hand, supported Cornyn more strongly, with 50% and 68% backing him, respectively.

In August, two other polls also measured the race. One from TSU/YouGov found Paxton ahead by 5 points, while another from Emerson College had Cornyn up by 1. In the RealClearPolitics Average, Paxton leads with 37.3% to Cornyn’s 35%.

Part of Cornyn’s problem in the state is his general unfavorability compared with Paxton. According to the Co/efficient poll, only 48% of respondents had a favorable opinion of Cornyn, while 63% had a favorable view of Paxton.

Paxton’s early lead in the primary challenge is even more surprising considering Cornyn’s history in the Senate. Cornyn assumed office in 2002 and has now served for 23 years. Before that, he was attorney general of Texas under then-Gov. George W. Bush. In more recent history, Cornyn was a significant contender for Senate majority leader in February 2024 after Mitch McConnell stepped down from the position, though he ultimately lost to Sen. John Thune.

As Texas attorney general, Paxton faced legal challenges that came to a head in 2023 when the state House of Representatives voted to impeach him. Lawmakers accused him of abusing the powers of his office to benefit a political ally, Austin real estate investor Nate Paul, who was under federal investigation. The charges included allegations that Paxton intervened in legal matters to shield Paul, pressured staff to act in ways that aided him, and accepted favors in return. In total, the House approved 20 articles of impeachment, sending the case to the Texas Senate for trial.

Ultimately, Paxton was acquitted on 16 of the articles that were brought forward for a vote, with the Senate dismissing the remaining four without consideration. The acquittal allowed Paxton to remain in office.

The candidate who wins the Republican primary is likely to ultimately win the Senate seat in November 2026. In the RCP Averages for the potential general election matchups, both lead against likely Democratic Senate candidate Rep. Colin Allred, though Cornyn leads by 5.5 points compared with Paxton’s 3.5-point lead. Despite Democrats pouring tens of millions of dollars into the state in recent elections, they have been unable to win a statewide race in Texas in recent years.