Can Republicans Break Through California’s Primaries?

Republicans are unlikely to win statewide in California, but Tuesday’s primaries could still give them a place on the November ballot. In both the governor’s race and the Los Angeles mayoral contest, Republican or Republican-backed candidates are polling near the top of packed fields.

In the gubernatorial race, from the beginning of the year through mid-April, Republican candidate Steve Hilton led the field and was followed by Republican Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco. However, since April, Democratic businessman Tom Steyer and former Democratic Department of Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra have grown in popularity.

In the latest RCP Average, Becerra, Steyer, and Hilton are in a dead heat, with Becerra at 24.6%, Hilton at 23.3%, and Steyer at 21%. Each of the three candidates has polls in the average that show them leading. However, only the top two candidates, regardless of party, will advance to the general election in November.

Betting markets think Xavier Becerra has a very high chance of advancing to the general election, at 94%, followed by Steve Hilton at 78% and Tom Steyer at 34%. All other candidates are below 2%.

For the November general election, though, Hilton has little shot of winning. In a CEPP poll taken May 23-26, in general election matchups, Steyer leads Hilton 55%-34%, and Becerra leads Hilton 58%-35%. The only competitive general election matchup is the possible same-party contest between Becerra and Steyer, where Becerra leads Steyer 37% to 26%, and 18% say they are undecided. Betting markets agree Hilton has a low chance of victory in the general, at only 8.6%, while Steyer sits at 17% and Becerra is at 75%.

L.A.’s primary is similarly competitive. In the last four May polls, incumbent Mayor Karen Bass led in three, while Trump-endorsed former reality TV star Spencer Pratt led by 1 point in the other. Los Angeles City Councilmember Nithya Raman trailed in third place in three of the four polls and came in second in one of them. All three candidates hovered between 18%-30% in the last four polls, giving them all a shot to win.

Under L.A.’s election rules, the top two candidates will advance to a November runoff, unless a single candidate receives more than 50%. In betting markets, Karen Bass has a 91% chance to advance, Pratt has a 75% chance, and Raman has a 34% chance.

While Pratt appears well-positioned to make the runoff, his odds of winning the general election are much lower. In a Los Angeles Times/Berkeley IGS poll, despite only trailing Bass by 4 points in primary polling, he trailed her by 18 points, 47% to 29%, in a general election matchup. Raman also led Pratt 45% to 28%. In the head-to-head between Bass and Raman, Raman led 32% to 28%.

Betting markets still think there’s a chance for Pratt, even though early polls have him performing poorly. While Karen Bass leads with a 64% chance of winning reelection, Pratt comes in second at 22%, followed by Raman at 13%.

This means that unless there’s a significant upset on Tuesday, November’s elections will have a Republican running against a Democrat in L.A.’s mayoral and California’s gubernatorial races. From there, Spencer Pratt and Steve Hilton will need to make up significant ground to have a real shot at winning.