Can GOP Hang On to Trump’s Gains With Latino Voters?

In 2024, Donald Trump won 46% of the Latino vote, which represented a 14-point swing from the 2020 election and a new record for a Republican candidate for president. Trump won a majority of Latino men (54%), and nearly four in 10 Latino women. The question of the moment is whether the Republican Party can hang on to those gains in the 2026 midterms, or whether Latinos will drift back into the Democrats’ column.

Before we look ahead to the election on Nov. 3, let’s take a quick look back. In 2016, Donald Trump won just 29% of the Latino vote against Hillary Clinton, a slight improvement from the 27% support Mitt Romney received in 2012.

During Trump’s first midterm, Republicans managed to keep an identical level of national support among Latinos (29%), while en route to losing 41 House seats but gaining two Senate seats – including one in Florida where Rick Scott upset incumbent Democrat Bill Nelson by just 10,000 votes, in part driven by strong support among Latinos.

In 2020, Trump again improved his support among Latinos to 32% but narrowly lost the election. Two years later during the 2022 midterms, Latino support for the GOP surged to 39%, helping Republicans retake control of the House with a slim majority.

So where does the Latino vote stand today? Trump’s approval rating among Latino voters stands at just 31.5%, with 67.3% disapproving. That is almost nine points lower than Trump’s overall job approval rating in the RealClearPolitics Average.

When Latino voters are asked which party they would vote for if the midterm election were held today, 32% say Republicans and 61% say Democrats. If those numbers hold, that would represent a 14-point swing in the Democrats’ direction, effectively wiping out Republican gains with Latinos over the last four years.

Of special concern is the highly contested Senate race in Texas, where Latino voters make up about one third of the electorate. A new NBC News poll released last week shows Democrat James Talarico leading Republican Ken Paxton among Latinos by an 18-point margin, 54 to 36. Talarico currently leads in the RCP Average of polls by 2.6%.

As a point of reference, in 2018 Ted Cruz lost the Latino vote to Beto O’Rourke by 29 points, 35 to 64, but still managed to win reelection to the Senate in Texas by a 51 to 48 percent margin. It’s worth noting that the electorate in Texas has grown considerably over the last eight years: from 15.8 million registered voters in November 2018 to 18.8 million registered voters in March of 2026. Which party that ultimately benefits remains to be seen.