Betting Markets Now Favor Democrats To Win Senate in ’26

Given the favorable 2026 Senate map for Republicans, with few seats to defend in swing states, they should have an easy path to keeping the Senate. However, after a combination of delays in the Epstein files, a perceived lack of focus on domestic issues, and a government lockdown, Trump’s approval has declined, and with it Republicans’ chances of holding the Senate in the midterms, according to betting markets.

The latest betting odds from Kalshi on March 16 had Republicans and Democrats tied at 50% to win the Senate and even had Democrats slightly favored over the weekend. This is a stark departure from last year’s predictions, which put Republicans’ chances of winning the Senate at 82% early in the year and 75% in November,

This comes down to Democrats’ overwhelming lead in the Generic Congressional Ballot, where Democrats have led by more than 4 points since Jan. 1, 2026. If this lead is the margin Democrats win by on Election Day, it will be a 7-8 point swing from the 2.7-point Republican win on the Generic Congressional Ballot in 2024. Every day the midterms draw nearer, and that lead does not shrink, Republicans’ chances of keeping the Senate decline.

This lead makes Republican victories in the swing states very difficult, especially considering none of them have a Republican incumbent running for reelection. In North Carolina, former Gov. Roy Cooper leads former RNC Chairman Michael Whatley by 8.5 points in the RCP Average. In Georgia, incumbent Sen. Jon Ossoff leads Republican frontrunner Rep. Mike Collins by 5 points in the only poll from 2026.

In Michigan, Republican Mike Rogers is closer to Democrats Mallory McMorrow and Haley Stevens, though the lead will likely shrink as his name recognition advantage declines. He previously ran for Senate in 2024, and the Democrats will pick a candidate on Aug. 4.

Maine is another likely pickup, where Republican Sen. Susan Collins currently trails by 6.5 points to Democratic frontrunner Graham Platner. This polling lead is likely to increase as his name recognition increases as the election approaches. Skeptics of a Democratic win point out that in 2020, Democratic candidate Sara Gideon led Collins by similar margins in polls leading up to the election, but lost to Collins by 9 points.

All these states being taken by Democrats were already factored into the 70% chance Republicans had to keep the Senate in October. If Democrats won all these swing states and lost the other ones in possible contention, they would still only have 49 of the 51 seats required for a majority. What has changed since November is that red-leaning states like Ohio, Texas, and Alaska have all shifted into the toss-up column.

Since 2016, Ohio has shifted to leaning slightly red but has still had some close races. In 2024, Bernie Moreno beat incumbent Sherrod Brown by 3.6 points. If the race swings 7 points in the Democrats’ direction, Democrat Sherrod Brown, who is running again against Republican John Husted, would be favored. The latest poll from Quantus Insights indicates that swing might not take effect, however, as it has Husted up by 1 point. He outran gubernatorial candidate Vivek Ramaswamy, who trailed Democrat Amy Acton by 1 point.

Alaska has a similar situation, where Democrat Mary Peltola, who previously won the statewide House race, is running against incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan. Over the last week, the race has flipped from Sullivan being favored to Peltola, 53%-47%.

Texas’ Republican Senate candidate has not yet been officially decided, though the favorite is Sen. John Cornyn. Even though he has polled better against the Democratic candidate James Talarico than his opponent, Ken Paxton, he only has a slight edge to win the race with 56%, according to betting markets.

To win, Democrats effectively need to sweep across the board, with only a margin of error of one seat across all these states. If they give up two of the previously mentioned seven, they will not have a majority, and Republicans will keep the Senate. However, markets think both outcomes are equally likely due to the fact that Democrats are predicted to heavily outperform previous elections.