Becerra Emerges, Hilton Hangs On, and California Looks Deep Blue

As the number of undecided voters has declined precipitously, a bit of clarity seems to have finally emerged in California’s gubernatorial “jungle” primary.

If the polls are accurate, the main beneficiary of onetime frontrunner Eric Swalwell’s self-immolation is Xavier Becerra, who now leads the crowded field in the latest polling. Holding steady in second place is Steve Hilton.

A KStrat survey released Wednesday shows Xavier Becerra leading the field with 27%, just ahead of Steve Hilton at 26%. Tom Steyer registers in at 20% in the KStrat poll, with none of the others in double digits.

A Public Policy of Institute of California poll released Thursday (but in the field earlier than KStrat) reports similar findings. The PPIC numbers have Becerra at 23%, 3 points ahead of Hilton. The top duo is followed by billionaire Democrat Tom Steyer, (15%), Republican Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco (13%), and former Democratic Rep. Katie Porter (12%).

Two other polls are expected in the coming days: One of them is Emerson College Polling, which was the first to detect the Becerra surge; the other is Berkeley IGS. After that, it’s up to the voters.

If the current numbers hold through next Tuesday, Becerra and Hilton would face each other in November. In a state in which no Republican has held statewide office in 15 years, Becerra will be heavily favored. He is as close to a generic Democrat as you can find in this race. Born and raised in Sacramento to Mexican immigrant parents, Becerra went to work as a legislative staff aide in Sacramento after graduating from Stanford Law School. He then began climbing the party’s ladder, became an assemblyman and then served in Congress before being appointed to serve as state attorney general by Gov. Jerry Brown. Most recently, he was secretary of Health and Human Services under President Biden.

Steve Hilton’s pedigree is quite a contrast. Although Hilton, too, has a Stanford connection – he spent a year at the university’s famed Hoover Institution a decade ago – that’s about the extent of what he and Becerra have in common. Born in Great Britain, Hilton only became an American citizen in 2021 and has never held elective office of any kind.

Hilton is an articulate and personable conservative commentator, however, running for office in a year in which the U.S. electorate seems to be in a restive and even angry mood. Will that be enough? Assuming he makes the runoff – and that’s not assured – Hilton faces awfully long odds. How long? Well, the betting markets make him a huge underdog. Polymarket has Xavier Becerra at 68%, with Tom Steyer – who may not even make the runoff – at 20%. Steve Hilton is at 9%.

Does the phrase “one-party state” ring a bell?

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