Battle for the Senate

With the 2026 midterm election nine weeks from today, the battle for control of the United States Senate is entering its final phase. Over the next 63 days, hundreds of millions of dollars will be spent, debates will be held, and candidates will take their case directly to voters across nine battleground states. Let’s take a quick look at the four most competitive races:

Michigan

This race continues to be the Democrats’ most difficult seat to defend in what is otherwise shaping up to be a good Democratic year. Abdul El-Sayed continues to face questions about – and refuse to denounce his association with – antisemitic and anti-American social media star Hasan Piker. Yesterday, CBS News reported on two tweets about the September 11, 2001, terror attacks deleted by El-Sayed, which invited further scrutiny of his views. Despite all of the controversy, a new poll from EPIC/MRA released over the weekend showed El-Sayed leading Republican Mike Rogers by 4 points, 47% to 43%. El-Sayed leads by 1.8 percentage points in the RCP Average and is a 65% favorite according to the betting site Polymarket.

Texas

The fact that Republicans are playing defense in a state Donald Trump won by 13.6% two years ago gives an indication of how difficult the political environment is for the GOP this year. Democrats haven’t won a statewide race in Texas since 1994, and James Talarico, who has taken numerous positions that would seem to put him at odds with a majority of Texas voters, seems an unlikely candidate to finally realize the Democrats’ dream of turning the Lone Star state blue. Still, Talarico has thus far vastly outspent Paxton, who has his own problems as a candidate and is currently leading in the RCP Average by 1.9 points. Donald Trump was in Houston last week raising money for Paxton, and Paxton hopes to get a further boost from Trump when the GOP midterm convention descends on Dallas next Wednesday and Thursday.

Maine

Graham Platner is well in the rearview mirror, but this race continues to be one of the most competitive of the cycle. Republican incumbent Susan Collins faces the biggest challenge of her political career in Troy Jackson, the state senator chosen to replace Platner. A Fox News poll released last week showed Jackson leading Collins by 2 points, 48% to 46%. He leads by a similar amount in the RCP Average, while Polymarket shows Jackson’s odds of knocking off Collins holding steady at 70%.

Alaska

In yet another state Trump won easily in 2024, Republicans are fighting to hold on. Incumbent Republican Dan S. Sullivan’s job has been made even harder by an ingenious dirty trick played by Democrats: recruiting someone with a nearly identical name, Dan J. Sullivan Jr., and getting him on the ballot as a Republican. In the Aug. 18 primary, Democrat Mary Peltola finished in first place with 49.5% of the vote, incumbent Dan Sullivan finished second with 41.4%, and imposter Dan Sullivan finished third with 2.5%. All three (and one other candidate) will advance to the general election on Nov. 3, which will be made even more unpredictable because it will be decided by ranked choice voting. Needless to say, the incumbent Dan Sullivan has his work cut out for him.

***

In addition to these four races, there are another three races (two Republican-held seats and one Democratic-held seat) that are currently separated by less than 3 points in the RCP Averages: Ohio, where Democratic challenger Sherrod Brown leads Republican incumbent Jon Husted by 2.6 points; Iowa, where Republican Ashley Hinson leads Democrat Josh Turek by 1.4 points in the race to replace Joni Ernst; and New Hampshire, where Democrat Chris Pappas leads Republican John Sununu by 2.0 points in the race to replace Jeanne Shaheen.

Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take control of the Senate, and with Roy Cooper well ahead in North Carolina and Jon Ossoff comfortably defending his seat in Georgia, Democrats only need to flip three additional seats – a goal that seems reasonably within reach as they survey the landscape nine weeks from Election Day.