Are Maine, New Hampshire Senate Seats in Play?

According to betting markets, control of the Senate after the midterms is a coin flip, with Democrats and Republicans equally likely to hold the chamber. For Democrats to take control, they must win traditional Democratic strongholds such as Maine and New Hampshire, which the latest polling suggests will be competitive.

In a state that supported Harris by just 2.8 points, the latest New Hampshire poll from Emerson, conducted March 21-23, shows Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas leading Republican frontrunner John Sununu, who served as senator from 2003 to 2009, by 1 point. The previous two polls, from St. Anselm and the University of New Hampshire, showed Pappas ahead by 3 and 5 points, respectively.

Despite leaning blue in federal elections, New Hampshire consistently supports Republicans for governor. While the state has not elected a Republican for Senate since 2010 or for president since 2000, it has had a Republican governor since 2016, including Chris Sununu, John Sununu’s younger brother, who served from 2017 to 2025.

Maine is an even deeper blue state, yet Republican Sen. Susan Collins has held her seat since 1997. Her reelection bid will be a challenge, however, as Democrat Graham Platner, who leads the Democratic primary by 19.2 points, holds an advantage over Collins in early polls. In the latest Emerson poll, conducted March 21-23, Platner leads by 7 points, similar to the RCP Average, where he leads by 7.2 points.

In the 2020 election, however, Democratic candidate Sara Gideon led in October polls by 4 to 7 points. Collins ultimately won by 8.6 points, a roughly 15-point swing in her direction from the polling. If pollsters haven’t refined their Maine polling methodologies, a similar swing would put Collins ahead.

As in 2020, Democrats will likely be favored in the generic congressional ballot and outperform their 2022 and 2024 results. Currently, Democrats lead the generic congressional ballot by 5.6 points, an 8.3-point swing from Republicans’ 2.7- and 2.8-point leads in 2024 and 2022, and larger than Democrats’ 3.1-point lead in 2020. This places Republicans on the back foot, though individual candidates such as Sununu and Collins, with established records in their states, may have advantages over lesser-known opponents.

If Republicans pick up one of these seats, it is nearly impossible for Democrats to retake the Senate. Betting markets do not currently favor Collins or Sununu, however, giving them 28% and 17% chances of winning, respectively.