America’s Crisis of Confidence in Government

Americans have rarely been more dissatisfied with their political leaders or the institutions they oversee. Since RealClearPolitics began tracking views on the direction of the country in 2009, the RCP Average has never shown more Americans saying the country is headed in the right direction than saying it is on the wrong track. That persistent pessimism has coincided with deeply unpopular political parties and leaders.

On July 14 of the second year of their second terms, Presidents Donald Trump, Barack Obama and George W. Bush had very similar approval ratings, well within the margin of error. Trump’s approval rating stands at 40.9%, compared with 41.3% for Obama and 39.3% for Bush at the same points in their presidencies.

The three presidents were plagued by similar issues. In 2006, Bush was three years into the Iraq War, which initially had some public support but had become increasingly unpopular by his second term. Obama was similarly confronted by renewed conflict in Iraq. After U.S. combat forces withdrew in 2011, the United States resumed military operations there in 2014 as ISIS seized large areas of Iraq and Syria, including Mosul. Trump’s Operation Epic Fury is similarly unpopular, with a net approval rating of -20.9 points.

President Joe Biden also had a similar approval rating on July 14 of the second year of his presidency. With inflation reaching a high of about 9% at the time, his approval stood at 38.6%. Trump’s approval rating during his first term was slightly higher on July 14, 2018, at 43.1%.

One of the most striking features of American politics in recent years is how narrow the range of presidential approval has become. Barack Obama ended his presidency with an approval rating in the high 50s, according to Gallup, but for the majority of his tenure his rating remained between 40% and 50%. The same pattern largely defined Donald Trump’s first term, Joe Biden’s presidency and Trump’s current term: Approval moves relatively little and remains consistently low, generally between 35% and 45%.

That degree of stability was less common in earlier presidencies. George H.W. Bush’s approval rating, for example, fell from 89% in February 1991 to 29% in August 1992. George W. Bush experienced similarly dramatic swings, declining from 90% in September 2001 to 57% in March 2003 and 31% by May 2006.

Persistently low presidential approval ratings have hurt the party in power heading into recent midterm elections. Democrats currently lead Republicans by 5.9 points in the Generic Congressional Ballot, a margin exceeded only by their lead at the same point in 2018, when they were ahead by 8 points. Even in other years when the opposition party’s advantage was smaller than it is now, the president’s party failed to retain control of the House. Since 2002, the president’s party has lost House seats in every midterm election and has never retained a House majority it held going into the election.

That track record, combined with Democrats’ strong lead in the generic ballot, is why betting markets give Democrats an 84% chance of winning the House.

Even though Democrats lead in the GCB, neither party is particularly popular. The Democratic Party currently has a favorability rating of only 38.1%, while the Republican Party’s favorability rating stands at 39.3%.

No major party leaders have positive net favorability ratings, either. Vice President JD Vance ranks highest, at -7.3 points in the RCP Average, followed by House Speaker Mike Johnson at -8.4, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries at -12.5, Senate Majority Leader John Thune at -16.4, and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer at -24.4.

Even the Supreme Court, which had a positive net approval rating as recently as 2021, now faces high levels of disapproval. In the latest Gallup poll on the question, only 42% approved of the way the Supreme Court was handling its job, while 52% disapproved.

Taken together, the numbers point to a broader crisis of confidence in the federal government. The president, both parties, congressional leaders, and the Supreme Court are all viewed more negatively than positively. Until a president or party can rebuild that trust, the cycle of voters turning against whichever side is in power is likely to remain a defining feature of American politics.