Alaska Senate Race Is a True Toss-up

When Alaskan voters head to the polls Tuesday for the statewide primaries, they will be selecting not one candidate but up to four that would head to a general election for U.S. Senate, U.S. House, and the governor’s mansion. Of these races, the Senate is widely considered a genuine toss-up between Republican and Democratic control.

Alaska uses both an all-party primary system and ranked choice voting. Any candidate regardless of party may run in the same primary. Voters will rank their top four candidates, who will then advance to the general election, which will also use ranked choice voting until one candidate reaches 50-percent-plus-one. The majority of Alaskan voters are either Republican or nonpartisan, but Democrats could have a path to flipping the Senate seat this year.

Among the 16 candidates running, former U.S. Rep. Mary Peltola, a Democrat, has become the frontrunner challenger against incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan, who has held the seat since 2016. While polling in Alaska is notoriously difficult given the remote nature of most of the voting population, recent polls found the two neck and neck.

Alaska Survey Research released its August poll last week, which found Peltola with a narrow 50.8% win over Sullivan in a final ranked-choice voting round. The same company found Peltola also winning, but under 50% in its March survey. A June New York Times/Siena poll found Sullivan with a 2-point lead in the first ranked-choice round, but 5% of respondents said they were undecided. The left-leaning Data for Progress poll published Monday forecast Peltola winning by 6 percentage points. Over the past two years, the Cook Political Report, Decision Desk HQ, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball have all moved Alaska from the Solid Republican column to Toss Up.

Sullivan is a Marine Corps veteran, former state attorney general, and served in the George W. Bush administration. He adheres more closely to the Trump administration than his fellow Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski. But both Trump and Sullivan have seen approval rates crater in the state. The March Alaska Survey Research poll found that 47.4% of Alaskan voters had a very negative view of Trump, compared with only 22.6% who said they had a positive view. (Trump won Alaska in all three past presidential elections, with a 13-point margin of victory in 2024)

And Sullivan is not the only Dan, or even Sullivan, on the ballot. Former teacher Daniel J. Sullivan, Jr., is also running as a Republican candidate for senator, despite the GOP’s attempts to block him from the ballot. Both Daniel J. Sullivan and the Peltola campaign have denied the NRSC’s allegations that he’s colluding with Democrats to confuse voters. The ballot will list the current senator as “Dan S. Sullivan, Registered Republican, Incumbent” and the challenger as “Daniel J. Sullivan, Jr.” without a party affiliation, though he registered as a Republican.

Over the weekend, a super PAC affiliated with former Vice President Kamala Harris sent an email urging voters to stand behind Peltola in the race, but Peltola has tried to distance herself from the connection. Harris lost Alaska by nearly 20 percentage points, worse than former President Joe Biden did in 2020. Peltola’s campaign said she “isn’t seeking endorsements from anyone from the Lower 48,” according to the Times.

Alaska only has one congressional seat, and incumbent Rep. Nick Begich, a Republican, is running to defend it against a crowded field of challengers. He previously won the seat from Peltola in 2024. Peltola is a registered Democrat but holds many pro-oil positions, which puts her at odds with the broader party in Washington.

Seventeen candidates are running for governor to replace Gov. Mike Dunleavy, who is term-limited.