$5,000 Dividend Check Unlikely as GOP Trails in Midterms

At the Republican Midterm Convention on Wednesday night, President Trump announced a $5,000 dividend check for every American if Republicans win the House and Senate in 2026. Beyond the proposal’s potential effects on inflation and the federal debt, its prospects face another major obstacle: Republicans have only a slim chance of retaining control of both chambers of Congress in the midterms.

Currently, in the RealClearPolitics Polling Average for the Generic Congressional Ballot, which asks respondents which party they intend to vote for in their respective congressional races, Democrats lead by 5.7 points.

Since 2006, the party holding the presidency has lost House seats in every midterm election. When Republicans won the national House vote by 2.8 points in 2022, 5.7 points in 2014, and 6.8 points in 2010, they gained nine seats, 13 seats, and 63 seats, respectively. When Democrats won the national House vote by 8.4 points in 2018, they gained 41 seats. In 2026, Democrats need to pick up only three seats to regain the majority.

Betting markets overwhelmingly expect Democrats to win back the House, giving them an 87% chance of taking control. Redistricting, however, has given Republicans an advantage worth roughly 10 seats, making the Democratic path somewhat more difficult. Instead of simply picking up three seats, Democrats will effectively need to gain closer to 13 to overcome that advantage and win the majority. Depending on the analysis, that would require Democrats to win the national House vote by roughly 2 to 3 points, meaning Republicans’ clearest path to holding the chamber is narrowing the Democratic lead to around 3 points or less.

Republicans have more room for error in the Senate than in the House. Democrats cannot afford many losses in states such as New Hampshire and Maine, and they also need to carry competitive races in North Carolina, Georgia, and Michigan. From there, they would still have to flip at least two Republican-leaning seats, which could include Ohio, Texas, Iowa, and Alaska.

In North Carolina and Georgia, betting markets put Democratic candidates Jon Ossoff and Roy Cooper at a 93% chance of winning their respective elections, making their respective victories very likely.

New Hampshire and Maine are interesting cases. In 2024, both supported Kamala Harris for president and, considering the significant shift in Democrats’ direction in the Generic Congressional Ballot, should be relatively favorable terrain for Democrats. However, incumbent Sen. Susan Collins and Republican John Sununu, who previously served as a New Hampshire senator from 2003 to 2009, are currently trailing only narrowly in the polls. Collins trails Democrat Troy Jackson by 2.7 points, while Sununu trails Chris Pappas by 2 points. In both cases, Democrats are favored by betting markets, but neither race is viewed as certain, with Jackson at 71% and Pappas at 81%.

Michigan and Alaska both lean slightly toward Democrats, but neither race is guaranteed. In Michigan, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed leads Republican Mike Rogers by 1.9 points in the RCP Average, while Polymarket gives El-Sayed a 66% chance of winning. Alaska looks remarkably similar: Democrat Mary Peltola leads incumbent Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan by 2 points in the RCP Average, with Polymarket giving Peltola a 64% chance of winning.

Texas and Ohio are even more competitive. In Texas, Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton by 2.4 points in the RCP Average, while Polymarket gives Talarico a 51% chance of winning, essentially treating the race as a toss-up. Ohio follows much the same pattern, with former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown narrowly ahead of Republican Sen. Jon Husted in polling and the betting markets nearly evenly divided. The closeness of both races stands out because Trump carried Texas and Ohio by more than 10 points in 2024.

Iowa is still more likely to go Republican than Democratic, with Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson holding a narrow advantage in both polling and betting markets. Hinson leads Democrat Josh Turek by 1.8 points in the RCP Average, and Polymarket gives Hinson a 66% chance of winning. The race is considerably closer than Iowa’s presidential vote in 2024, when Trump carried the state by more than 13 points.

Taken together, these races leave control of the Senate extremely close. Betting markets give Republicans a 49% chance of holding at least 50 seats, enough to retain control of the chamber with the vice president’s tiebreaking vote.

Because a Democratic Senate victory would likely coincide with a strong Democratic performance nationally in House races, betting markets give Republicans only a 15% chance of sweeping both the House and Senate. Therefore, even if it were possible to pass a $5,000 dividend check, it is very unlikely that Republicans will have control of both chambers of Congress required to get it passed.