2028 Front-Runners Among Least Popular U.S. Politicians

Since Donald Trump’s election in 2016, presidents have tended to begin their terms with slightly positive approval ratings before sliding underwater for the rest of their time in office. If the current 2028 front-runners win their parties’ nominations, it looks as if they will similarly be starting on the back foot, as they are already weighed down by negative favorability.

The latest AtlasIntel poll asked whether Americans had a positive image of various former and current politicians in the U.S. While Barack and Michelle Obama topped the list, with 52% and 51% having a positive image of them, respectively, 2028 front-runners JD Vance and Gavin Newsom were near the bottom of the list, with only 37% and 34% having a positive view. The only politician lower was Hillary Clinton, at 32%.

Betting markets put Vance and Newsom as the front-runners to win their parties’ nominations, giving Vance a 35% chance and Newsom a 25% shot.

The poll did find that other possible nominees performed better. In an extremely atypical result, the AtlasIntel poll found Marco Rubio led in the 2028 Republican primary with 45.4%, to Vance’s 29.6% and Ron DeSantis’ 11.2%. No other poll conducted for the Republican primary has had Rubio above 23% or Vance below 36%. Similarly, on the Democratic side, the poll had Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 26% and Pete Buttigieg at 22.4%, above Gavin Newsom at 21.2% and Kamala Harris at 12.9%. Except for previous AtlasIntel polls, all polls have shown Newsom or Harris as the front-runner.

This poll indicated that part of the reason is that the front-runners in the AtlasIntel poll are better liked. Ocasio-Cortez followed the Obamas at the top of the charts, with 49% having a positive image of her. Buttigieg followed at 44% and DeSantis at 39%, still higher than Vance. The poll also asked about people’s opinions of administration officials, and Rubio topped the list, with 46% viewing him positively.

These results aren’t found by all pollsters, however. Other polls, such as Economist/YouGov, have the net favorability of Vance and Rubio at much more similar levels, -14 and -10, respectively. In a Gallup poll from earlier this year, Ocasio-Cortez had similar net favorability to other top Democratic leaders, at -10, similar to Harris’ -11 and Chuck Schumer’s -12.

Still, the AtlasIntel results shouldn’t be dismissed, considering the recent accuracy of its polling. In 2024, AtlasIntel was off by no more than 1 point in any swing state and missed the national result by just 0.4 points, making it one of the most accurate pollsters.

If AtlasIntel’s accuracy holds, this is specifically troubling for Republicans in the midterms. The poll also found Republicans down 15 points to Democrats in the generic congressional ballot. This is also an extreme result relative to the RCP Average, which has Democrats leading by 6.6 points. Democrats also led on trust on top issues, such as inflation/cost of living, the job market, and “democracy,” by 15- to 17-point margins in the Atlas poll.